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James Okafor
Economics & Policy Reporter

Central banks, rates, and the macro data that moves markets. Spent five years at the Financial Times covering the Fed and Treasury before joining Edgen.

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Markets price a 67% probability the Fed hikes 25 basis points in September, up from 37% a week ago, as oil above $90 and US-Iran tensions stoke inflation fears.

Fed rate-hike odds jump to 67% as oil tops $90

Markets now price a 67% probability the Fed raises rates by a quarter point in September, up from 37% a week ago, as oil above $90 and US-Iran tensions stoke inflation fears ahead of Friday's payrolls and September 11 CPI reports.

Japan's 10-year JGB yield broke above 3% for the first time since 1996, cementing bets on a BOJ September rate hike and reviving yen carry-trade unwind risk.

Japan 10-year yield tops 3% as BOJ September hike nears

The benchmark JGB yield's first breach of 3 percent since 1996 has traders pricing a near-certain BOJ hike this month and weighing the global fallout of a yen carry-trade unwind.

Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive decision but adopted a hawkish tone on inflation, pushing two-year yields above 3.1% as traders priced a 50-50 chance of a rate hike before year-end.

Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% as Traders Price 50-50 Hike Odds

Bank of Canada held at 2.25% but turned hawkish on inflation, lifting two-year yields above 3.1% as traders priced a 50-50 chance of a hike.

The yen's slide past 160 one month after a record $98.7 billion US-Japan intervention tests whether BOJ rate hikes can break the currency's depreciation cycle, with the Fed's rate path as the decisive external variable.

Yen's 160 Break Pits BOJ Hikes Against Fed's Hawkish Path

USDJPY's breach of 160 one month after the record $98.7 billion joint intervention tests whether BOJ rate-hike expectations can finally break the yen's depreciation cycle, with the Fed's rate path as the decisive external variable.

A global bond selloff is pushing the Federal Reserve toward its first rate increase since 2023, with futures pricing near 70 percent odds of a September hike that lifts consumer borrowing costs.

Fed hike odds near 70% as bond selloff lifts consumer costs

The Fed under Kevin Warsh is on track to raise rates for the first time since 2023 as a global bond selloff lifts the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.79 percent.

Federal prosecutors charged Linqto founder William Sarris with securities fraud over an alleged $450 million pre-IPO share markup scheme, as a former executive cooperates with investigators.

Linqto founder charged in $450 million pre-IPO fraud scheme

The Justice Department arrested Linqto founder William Sarris on charges he inflated pre-IPO share prices through fabricated scarcity, with a former executive now cooperating after pleading guilty in the widening probe.

Japanese 30-year JGB yields fell 7 basis points to 4.095 percent in early Tokyo trading, buoyed by U.S. Treasury gains and yen strength ahead of a Finance Ministry auction of about 600 billion yen.

JGB 30-year yield falls 7 bps to 4.095% ahead of auction

Japanese 30-year JGB yields fell 7 basis points to 4.095 percent in early Tokyo trade, tracking U.S. Treasury gains and yen strength ahead of a 600 billion yen Finance Ministry auction.

US Treasury yields reach multi-year highs driven by war-driven diesel price inflation, a $40 trillion federal debt load, Fed policy uncertainty, and record AI corporate bond issuance.

War, $40 trillion debt push Treasury yields to multi-year highs

US Treasury yields have hit multi-year highs as a war-driven surge in diesel prices above $5.68 a gallon rekindles inflation expectations, layered on top of a $40 trillion federal debt load, a Fed that has abandoned forward guidance, and record AI-driven corporate bond issuance.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly criticized AI hyperscalers with a D-minus grade for failing to engage communities amid a nationwide anti-data center backlash over rising utility costs.

Bessent grades hyperscalers D-minus as data center backlash spreads

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent graded AI hyperscalers D-minus for community engagement failures as data center backlash spreads across the US, adding to his earlier criticism of their bond issuance strategy as the Trump administration widens pressure on the sector.

Japan's 30-year JGB auction on Thursday will test fiscal confidence as yields approach record highs, with potential global fixed-income spillover risks.

Japan 30-Year JGB Auction at 4.155% Tests Fiscal Credibility

Japan's 30-year government bond auction on Thursday tests investor confidence in Takaichi's fiscal agenda as yields near records, with a weak result risking global fixed-income spillover.

PG&E CEO Patti Poppe urges California lawmakers to revive wildfire liability reform after the shelved bill sent shares tumbling and raised the utility's borrowing costs.

California's shelved wildfire reform keeps PG&E from billions in grid investment

The collapse of California's SB 492 leaves PG&E and rival utilities carrying unmitigated wildfire liability that keeps borrowing costs high and delays a return to investment-grade credit.

Bank of Canada holds rates at 2.25% for seventh straight meeting as US-Canada tariff escalation raises inflation risks and markets price H1 2027 hikes.

Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% as Tariffs Push Hikes Into View

A seventh straight hold at 2.25% masks a sharpening policy dilemma: new U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliation have raised inflation risks even as Q2 growth rebounded 3.3%, and markets now price three hikes by mid-2027.

A federal judge ruled Google does not have to break up its ad-tech business but imposed behavioral conduct remedies, marking the second antitrust case where Alphabet avoided a forced divestiture.

Google Keeps AdX After 2023 Breakup Bid Fails, Faces Conduct Curbs

A federal judge spared Google's ad-tech business from a forced breakup but imposed behavioral conduct remedies, marking the second antitrust case where Alphabet avoided structural divestiture.

The yen strengthened sharply against the dollar after hawkish BoJ board member Hajime Takata signaled nimble rate hikes, reviving intervention speculation and carry-trade unwind bets.

Yen Jumps as BoJ Signals Nimble Hikes With Inflation Above 2%

The yen strengthened sharply against the dollar after hawkish Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata signaled nimble rate hikes, reviving intervention speculation and carry-trade unwind bets.

New York Fed President John Williams signaled openness to further interest-rate increases, a hawkish shift from his prior hold-and-wait stance that unsettled market bets on 2026 rate cuts.

Fed's Williams opens door to hikes as 10-year yield tops 4.8%

A leading Fed dove now says further increases may be needed to finish the inflation fight, clouding the easing path markets had priced for 2026.

FT Alphaville analysis pegs the US Treasury's July yen intervention at roughly $500 million, far below the $5-10 billion market estimate, reassessing US FX firepower.

Treasury's $500M yen intervention signals limited FX firepower

FT Alphaville's analysis of weekly reserve data suggests the U.S. Treasury's July yen intervention totaled roughly $500 million, not the $5-10 billion markets assumed, shrinking the perceived U.S. backstop under the yen and shifting the burden onto BOJ rate hikes.

Gold sellers turned cautious after ADP showed private payrolls rose just 38,000 in August, less than expected, as traders await the nonfarm payrolls report to gauge the Federal Reserve's rate path.

Weak ADP's 38,000 gain lifts Fed easing odds, gold sellers wait

Gold sellers turned cautious after ADP showed private payrolls rose just 38,000 in August, less than expected, with traders awaiting the nonfarm payrolls report to gauge the Federal Reserve's rate path.

New York Fed President John Williams said inflation continues to trend down even as a U.S. government bond selloff lifts the 30-year yield to its highest in nearly two decades.

Williams Says Inflation Cooling as 30-Year Yields Hit Two-Decade High

The New York Fed chief framed rising long-term yields as a sign of economic strength while saying price pressures are easing, giving markets a fresh gauge of how soon the central bank might cut rates.

ADP reported U.S. private-sector employment rose 38,000 in August, below expectations and the slowest since January, strengthening the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

ADP payrolls rise 38,000, slowest since January, boosting Fed cut bets

U.S. private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest pace since January and below the roughly 48,000 economists expected, strengthening the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead of Friday's official payrolls report.

Eastspring Investments economist Ray Farris argues the Federal Reserve must raise rates this year to counter unsustainable US fiscal policy, as the 30-year Treasury yield holds near 5.3 percent.

Eastspring's Farris Sees Fed Hike as 30-Year Yield Tops 5.3%

Eastspring economist Ray Farris argues the Federal Reserve must raise rates this year to counter unsustainable US fiscal policy, contrasting with Japan's yield climb as a sign of economic success.

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