Warsh's Atlanta Fed pick offers first test as 9 of 19 favor hikes

Kevin Warsh's choice for the Atlanta Fed presidency will signal whether the new chairman intends to reshape the central bank in his image or govern from the center.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta presidency has sat vacant since February, giving Chairman Kevin Warsh his first opportunity to install a like-minded official on the rate-setting committee after his inaugural meeting revealed a deeply divided Federal Open Market Committee.

"Warsh's selection will be the clearest signal yet of how he intends to govern — whether as a consensus-builder or an agent of change," said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer, a Fed-watching firm in Washington.

At Warsh's first FOMC meeting last week, 9 of 19 officials projected at least one rate hike would be appropriate later this year, while 8 saw the federal funds rate staying within its current 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent range. Only one member penciled in a cut. The hawkish tilt pushed the 2-year Treasury yield up 8 basis points and dragged the S&P 500 down 0.4 percent, as traders priced in a potential September increase.

The Atlanta post is one of 12 regional bank presidencies that rotate onto the FOMC voting roster. Filling it with a hawk or a dove could tip the balance on future rate decisions, particularly as inflation accelerated to 4.2 percent — the highest in more than three years — partly fueled by higher energy costs after the administration's conflict with Iran disrupted crude shipments.

Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell after President Donald Trump's campaign to oust the former chair, has described himself as a student of Milton Friedman's monetary theory. At his post-meeting press conference, he declared that "this committee will deliver price stability" and noted the Fed had not met its inflation target in more than five years. The remarks marked a sharp pivot from his pre-nomination commentary, when he argued that artificial intelligence could be "structurally disinflationary" and allow for rate cuts.

The fed funds rate has been held at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent since the last quarter-point cut in December 2025, after the previous easing cycle brought rates down from a peak of 5.5 percent. Overnight index swaps now price a 62 percent probability that the committee holds steady through the September meeting, with the remainder split between a hike and a cut.

The Atlanta vacancy arose when the previous president's term expired in February. Under the Federal Reserve Act, the Board of Governors in Washington appoints regional bank presidents, giving Warsh direct influence over the selection. The new president will participate in FOMC deliberations immediately and gain a vote on monetary policy beginning in 2027, when the Atlanta seat rotates onto the voting roster.

A Divided Committee

The 9-8-1 split in the dot plot — the individual rate projections from 19 Fed officials — shows the challenge Warsh faces in forging consensus. The last time the FOMC displayed such dispersion was in 2019, when the committee was split between rate hikes and cuts before ultimately pivoting to an easing cycle. That precedent suggests the current divide could resolve in either direction depending on incoming data.

Warsh has declined to offer his own rate projection, breaking with the tradition of Fed chairs providing forward guidance. "We will be very attentive to incoming developments," he said when pressed on the outlook. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for the end of July, giving the committee roughly five weeks to assess whether the recent inflation spike proves transitory.

The Iran Factor

The inflation surge to 4.2 percent stems largely from higher energy costs after the administration's military engagement with Iran disrupted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. A tentative peace deal has since eased tensions, and oil prices have declined. If the trend continues, headline inflation could moderate by the July meeting, reducing pressure on Warsh to follow through on his hawkish rhetoric.

Yet risks remain. The conflict could resume, generating another price spike. Separately, the artificial intelligence investment boom is creating shortages of memory chips and other components, forcing companies such as Apple to raise prices, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook said last week.

Warsh now holds weekly breakfasts with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a sign of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy under the new administration. His selection for the Atlanta post will be scrutinized not only for its policy implications but for what it reveals about his relationship with the White House.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.