Kalshi traders see less than 60% chance June payrolls top 100,000

Kalshi prediction market traders assign less than 60% odds that June nonfarm payrolls growth will exceed 100,000, diverging from the Dow Jones consensus of 118,000 jobs added, according to data from the regulated prediction platform.

The divergence marks a reversal from May, when Kalshi traders had pointed to a strong chance the final reading would beat expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report due Thursday showed May job growth totaling 172,000, more than double the consensus outlook at the time. This time, traders on the platform give about 42% odds that payrolls will cross 125,000, with the contract set to resolve after the BLS verifies the figures.

The Dow Jones consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to drop off significantly from May's pace. Wall Street also anticipates average hourly earnings to rise 3.5% on an annual basis, up from 3.4% in the prior report, with a 0.3% month-over-month increase roughly in line with the May reading.

Why prediction markets are diverging from Wall Street

The Kalshi pricing reflects a broader caution among traders about the economic outlook that extends beyond the labor market. After Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week the U.S. economy can achieve 3% growth this year, traders on the platform assigned only 14.2% odds that gross domestic product would rise between 2.6% and 3%.

On unemployment, traders are closer to the consensus. They give a 71% probability the jobless rate will move above 4.2%, but just 30% odds it will surpass the current 4.3% level, which matches the Dow Jones forecast. The unemployment rate has drifted higher over the past year, rising from 3.7% in January 2025 to 4.3% in May, a trajectory that historically has preceded Fed easing cycles.

The last time the unemployment rate rose by 60 basis points over a five-month period was in 2019, when the Fed responded with three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts starting in July of that year. If the June report shows further softening, markets may begin pricing a similar response.

What a weak jobs number would mean for markets

A payrolls print below 100,000 would represent the weakest monthly gain since December 2024, when the economy added 81,000 jobs. Such a result would likely reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially pushing the two-year Treasury yield lower and weighing on the U.S. dollar. The S&P 500 has gained 4.2% over the past month as traders have priced in a higher probability of easing, with fed funds futures reflecting roughly 75 basis points of cuts by year-end.

Kalshi, which reported trading volumes exceeding $1 billion in a two-week period earlier this year, has increasingly become a reference point for real-time market expectations. The platform's partnership with ADI Predictstreet for the 2026 World Cup signals its broader push into global event-driven trading, but its core function as a macroeconomic sentiment gauge is drawing growing attention from institutional investors.

The June jobs report is scheduled for release Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. A result below 100,000 would mark the first sub-100,000 print in six months and could accelerate the repricing of rate expectations across fixed income, equities, and currency markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.