Vance says US-Iran talks may start June 21 as oil flows resume

US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran may begin June 21, signaling the Trump administration is moving to implement the 14-point memorandum signed this week as oil tankers resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Negotiations with Iran are progressing smoothly," Vance said, adding that he plans to travel to Switzerland in the coming days. He cited no evidence that Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that handles about 21 percent of global oil trade.

The comments come after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 that lifted the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and waived sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Iran has exported roughly 18 million barrels of crude in the five days since the blockade was lifted, worth about $1.44 billion at current prices, according to TankerTrackers.com. Benchmark Brent crude, which traded above $110 a barrel in May, has fallen to around $80 as supply fears eased.

The 14-point MoU establishes a 60-day negotiation window to reach a final agreement addressing Iran's nuclear program. The United States has agreed to release frozen Iranian assets contingent on "verified steps" to eliminate Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, Vance told ABC News on June 15. A proposed $300 billion reconstruction and economic development fund for Iran would only materialize if a final nuclear deal is reached, though the legal pathway for such a fund remains unclear given US sanctions designating Iran's construction sector as controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Strait of Hormuz traffic rebounds

Data and intelligence firm Kpler reported a "notable increase in daily maritime activity" in the Strait of Hormuz following the MoU signing, with 25 verified crossings on June 18 alone. President Donald Trump said Friday that "ships are flowing out of the Hormuz Strait like nobody's ever seen before," estimating roughly 700 vessels had transited since the agreement.

Iran has agreed to remove naval mines and "technical obstacles" from the strait within 30 days, according to the leaked text of the MoU published by foreign policy analyst Josh Block and Saudi media. The agreement does not explicitly bar Iran from "managing" the strait, however, and IRGC-affiliated media stated on June 15 that Iran intends to resume charging "service fees" after the 60-day negotiation period.

Lebanon ceasefire tests the framework

The broader agreement faces an immediate test in Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire on June 19 after days of intensified fighting. Iran has interpreted the MoU's clause calling for a ceasefire "on all fronts, including Lebanon" as requiring Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah and withdraw from southern Lebanon. Israel, which is not a signatory to the MoU, has said it will maintain a security buffer zone until Hezbollah's infrastructure is dismantled.

The last time the United States negotiated a comprehensive nuclear framework with Iran — the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — oil exports rose by roughly 1 million barrels per day within 18 months of implementation, according to International Energy Agency data. The current agreement grants Iran immediate economic relief without requiring upfront nuclear concessions, raising questions about whether Tehran will have sufficient incentive to compromise on enrichment during the 60-day window.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to travel to Switzerland on June 22 for the next round of talks, according to Axios. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and former adviser Jared Kushner are already in Switzerland ahead of the anticipated negotiations.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.