Trump says US to declare victory over Iran within 2 weeks, oil to fall

President Donald Trump said the US will declare "total victory" over Iran within two weeks, predicting oil prices will tumble as Tehran accepts conditions to end the conflict.

President Donald Trump said the US will declare "total victory" over Iran within two weeks, predicting oil prices will tumble as Tehran accepts conditions to end a conflict that has disrupted crude supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

"We've been a very tough team, and I think we are winning that battle, but you're really going to win it over the next two weeks when we declare total victory," Trump said during a telerally for Senator Lindsey Graham. "It'll be a total victory. It'll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down."

The comments came hours after Iran and Israel agreed to halt a sharp escalation that saw Tehran fire waves of ballistic missiles at Israel on Sunday — the first such barrage since April — and Israel strike targets in Beirut. Trump told Axios he would urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate, saying "each of them had their fun." Iran warned of a "crushing" response if Israeli operations in Lebanon continue, leaving the truce fragile.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil trade, and Iran has been charging ships $1.5 million to $2 million per transit, according to a senior member of Iran's parliament. A resolution could remove a supply risk premium that has kept crude elevated, while failure to reach a deal by Trump's two-week deadline risks reigniting volatility.

Negotiations Narrow to War-Ending Terms

Current talks between Washington and Tehran are focused solely on ending the war, not Iran's nuclear program, according to Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei. "If this stage is concluded, the nuclear issue will be one of the next items for negotiations," Baghaei told the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency. Trump separately told NBC that Iran has agreed it will not obtain nuclear weapons, though the concession mirrors language from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that Trump withdrew the US from in 2018.

The last time the US and Iran faced a similar escalation was in April, when a ceasefire halted direct hostilities after Israel struck Iranian military facilities. That truce held for about two months before Sunday's missile exchange. Trump's two-week timeline mirrors the structure of the April ceasefire, which was also set as a 14-day pause to allow final deal negotiations.

Oil Market Bets on Resolution

Trump's prediction that oil prices will drop significantly upon a victory declaration aligns with market expectations that a deal would ease supply constraints. Iran's oil exports have been effectively blocked by a US naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, and the country's internet was shut down for nearly three months, crippling its economy. Senator James Lankford said Iran is "under tremendous high strain right now" and accused Tehran of dragging out negotiations.

Trump said he told Netanyahu to "use sense" and claimed the Israeli leader follows his orders. "If I tell him to do something, he does it," Trump said. Netanyahu said the fighting with Iran had stopped "for now" while warning Israel would retaliate if attacked.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.