Trump says US and Iran getting along well, deal odds at 10%

Trump's upbeat assessment of US-Iran relations contrasts with prediction markets pricing just a 10% chance of a diplomatic meeting by July 3.

President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are "getting along very well" and that nuclear de-escalation talks in Qatar are "progressing smoothly," even as prediction markets price just a 10% probability of a diplomatic meeting by July 3 — down from 34% just 24 hours earlier.

"We're getting along very well with Iran. The nuclear de-escalation process is moving forward, and we've had very good talks," Trump told reporters on July 1, according to CCTV International. "We'll see what happens."

The upbeat rhetoric comes as Iran prepares the largest state funeral in the Islamic Republic's history for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in US-Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28 that triggered the 2026 Iran conflict. Ceremonies spanning five cities across Iran and Iraq over six days begin Saturday, with Tehran's mayor estimating 20 million attendees in the capital alone and 8 million to 10 million expected at the final burial in Mashhad on July 9.

The disconnect between Trump's public optimism and market pricing shows the fragility of the détente. A memorandum of understanding signed June 17 opened a 60-day window for final negotiations, but underlying disputes over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile — estimated at 440 kilograms at 60% purity, below the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material but sufficient for multiple warheads if further processed — and the release of billions in frozen assets remain unresolved. Further rounds co-mediated by Pakistan and Qatar are expected in Doha on Tuesday.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi has accused Trump of pledging to restrain US allies in Tel Aviv, threatening that Iran will act if those allies do not comply. The remarks contributed to the sharp drop in prediction market probabilities, with the likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3 falling to 10% from 34% in a single day, according to market pricing data.

Nuclear talks and the Hormuz factor

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil trade, making any escalation in US-Iran tensions a direct risk to crude supply. US envoys have arrived in Qatar for meetings on Iran as tensions over the strategic waterway remain elevated. The last time a similar geopolitical standoff threatened Hormuz — during the 2019 tanker attacks — Brent crude spiked more than 15% over two months while shipping insurance premiums tripled.

Iran's nuclear program remains the central sticking point. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, under which Iran agreed to limit enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, was abandoned by Trump in May 2018 during his first term, triggering a progressive Iranian rollback of its commitments. Washington now demands limits on enrichment and removal of stockpiles, while Tehran insists its nuclear rights are non-negotiable and that concessions depend on concrete sanctions relief first.

What comes next

The 60-day negotiation window created by the June 17 MOU runs through mid-August. If no agreement is reached, the fragile ceasefire that has held since the Feb. 28 strikes could unravel, with direct implications for oil prices, Gulf state security, and global risk appetite. The Doha talks on Tuesday will be the first test of whether Trump's public optimism can translate into measurable diplomatic progress — or whether the 10% market odds prove more accurate.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.