Key Takeaways:
Trump ruled out deploying US ground troops in Iran and asserted exclusive American control over the Islamic Republic's enriched uranium, even as he declared the month-old ceasefire "over" and threatened another night of heavy strikes.
President Trump, speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, dismissed the prospect of a ground invasion when asked directly by reporters. "Why would I do that?" he said, according to a pool report. He also stated that "no one other than the US can obtain Iran's enriched uranium," signaling a hardening of Washington's position on Tehran's nuclear program just as diplomatic channels appeared to be collapsing.
The comments came after a volatile 24-hour period in which the US struck more than 80 targets inside Iran, including air-defense systems and over 60 small boats used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, according to US Central Command. Iran retaliated by targeting 85 American military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, setting off air-raid sirens in both Gulf states. Kuwait said it intercepted two ballistic missiles and 13 drones, with falling shrapnel damaging some power lines.
"The exchanges of fire between the US and Iran further complicate already fraught talks to end the war," Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign affairs chief, said on social media. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte took a different view, calling the American strikes "absolutely necessary" and accusing Iran of violating the truce. "I think it is totally crucial that the US forcefully react," Rutte said as alliance leaders gathered in Ankara.
Oil Surges as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Hangs in the Balance
Brent crude jumped 6% to above $78 a barrel, its highest level in more than two weeks, after Trump said the ceasefire was effectively dead. West Texas Intermediate rose to more than $74 a barrel. Both benchmarks remain below their wartime peaks but have climbed back above the prewar price of around $72 a barrel. The US national average gasoline price stood at $3.80 a gallon, more than 27% higher than on the eve of the war in late February, according to AAA.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas passed before the conflict, remains the central flashpoint. Only 41 ships transited the waterway on Tuesday, down from more than 130 before the war, according to Kpler. The International Maritime Organization urged ship operators to avoid the strait, warning that nearly 6,000 seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf could face "unnecessary danger."
Trump renewed threats to seize Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iranian oil exports, and to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure including desalination plants — a move experts have previously said could constitute a war crime. He also floated reinstating the US naval blockade near the strait, acknowledging Iran would likely retaliate by laying mines.
Ceasefire's Collapse Resets Diplomatic Clock
The preliminary US-Iran agreement signed June 17 was intended to reopen the strait and set the stage for broader negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program within 60 days. Iran's foreign ministry said Wednesday that the latest US attacks, Washington's decision to revoke the oil sales waiver, and "violation of Iranian arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz" had rendered "important and essential parts" of the memorandum of understanding ineffective.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf struck a defiant tone. "The era of bullying and extortion is over," he wrote on X. "It leads nowhere. We don't fold."
The last time US-Iran hostilities escalated to this level was in late June, when a similar cycle of Iranian attacks on shipping and American retaliatory strikes prompted Iran to target US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. That episode was contained within days, but Trump's declaration that the ceasefire is "over" suggests a lower tolerance for further violations. Negotiations toward a final deal had been paused for the funeral ceremonies of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. Those ceremonies conclude Thursday in Mashhad, where Khamenei is to be buried.
Trump said he would allow his negotiating team to continue talking with Iran but cast doubt on the outcome. "They can talk, but I think they're wasting their time," he said.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
