Trump abandoned four core war objectives — unconditional surrender, regime change, missile destruction, and proxy elimination — when he signed a 14-point MOU with Iran on June 14, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and setting a 60-day clock for nuclear talks after 15 weeks of conflict.
President Donald Trump abandoned four of his original war objectives — unconditional surrender, regime change, destruction of Iran's missile force, and elimination of its regional proxies — when he signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 14, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and setting a 60-day timeline for comprehensive nuclear negotiations after more than 15 weeks of conflict.
"The one thing I didn't want to see is I didn't want to see economic catastrophe," Trump said at the G-7 summit in France on June 17, explaining his shift from demanding Iran's capitulation to negotiating a deal. "If you kept this going, that could have happened."
The MOU, signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian after a last-minute ceremony at Versailles, stipulates that the U.S. will issue sanctions waivers for Iranian crude oil exports and related services including shipping, insurance, and banking transactions. Iran will regain access to at least $12 billion in frozen foreign assets, and regional partners are expected to provide as much as $300 billion for economic development — none of which Trump said would come from American taxpayers. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles more than 20 percent of global oil exports, is to reopen immediately under the terms of the agreement.
The reversal marks one of the sharpest strategic pivots of Trump's presidency. In a Feb. 28 video posted on Truth Social as American and Israeli bombs began falling, Trump said the U.S. would "destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground," "annihilate their navy," and ensure that Iran's proxies "can no longer destabilize the region." He urged Iranian protesters to "take over your government" and declared there would be "no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" in a March 6 post. By June 17, Trump said Iran was "entitled to have a missile force like other states" and described the country's leadership as "far less radicalized."
From regime change to negotiated settlement
The Feb. 28 Israeli airstrike that opened the campaign killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials. His son Mojtaba succeeded him, while Pezeshkian remained president. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps emerged from the conflict with greater influence than before, according to multiple assessments. Trump, who had promised that "help is on its way" to Iranian protesters in January, stopped referencing regime change after the MOU was signed.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the initial strikes, sending global oil prices higher and contributing to rising gasoline costs for American consumers. U.S. crude benchmarks traded at elevated levels through the spring as the world's oil reserves dwindled. Trump cited the economic toll as the primary reason for pursuing a negotiated exit.
The MOU's nuclear provisions represent the most concrete diplomatic achievement. Vice President JD Vance, leading the U.S. delegation in Switzerland, said Iran has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country, with discussions beginning "as soon as today." The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action collapsed after Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018, and Iran suspended IAEA access to sites bombed during the war in June 2025. The IAEA pulled its remaining inspectors the following month.
Israel and Lebanon complicate the path forward
The 60-day negotiating window faces immediate headwinds. Israeli air strikes in Lebanon have killed at least 67 people since the MOU was signed, while Hezbollah attacks killed five Israeli soldiers. The MOU calls for a cessation of hostilities on "all fronts" including Lebanon, and Iran has asked for guarantees that Israeli operations there will end. American spy agencies assess that Israel will likely continue strikes against Hezbollah forces, potentially jeopardizing the deal, according to a person familiar with the intelligence.
Vance delivered stern words to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling him: "The U.S. is your best ally. You should sort of give us a break and let us work on these kinds of things." Trump held heated phone calls to deescalate the situation, fearing that military flare-ups could sabotage the negotiations.
Republican senators have expressed unease with the agreement. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana called it "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades." Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana said: "Unless you were homeschooled by a day drinker, no one's confident that Iran's going to do anything." Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has been skeptical of negotiating with Iran, said after speaking with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff that signing the MOU "will be beneficial to the United States, in as much as the Strait of Hormuz will begin to open."
The last time the U.S. negotiated a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran, the 2015 JCPOA, it took 20 months of talks. The current 60-day timeline is far more compressed, and the MOU leaves unresolved the status of Iran's ballistic missile program, its regional proxy network, and the scope of IAEA inspections. Trump said those issues would be addressed in parallel discussions with Gulf Arab states and in the nuclear talks set to begin in Switzerland.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
