Key Takeaways:
Tesla Inc. trades 7% above Jefferies' $375 price target as the electric-vehicle maker's operational progress is overshadowed by widening robotaxi delays.
"Low visible progress in ramping robotaxis: few additional units, safety drivers, limited permitting and more tech delays," the Jefferies analyst said in a June 22 note.
Vehicle sales accelerated 15% year-on-year, battery storage deployment reached 11 Gwh with $3 billion in revenue, and auto gross margins recovered to 18.3%. The analyst raised cumulative 2026-28 EBIT estimates 11%, citing better-than-expected vehicle and storage economics. Yet EPS estimates were cut 23% to 40% versus consensus.
The divergence reflects a market pricing narrative over execution. Full Self-Driving v15 is delayed to late 2026, Hardware 3 incompatibility remains unresolved, and humanoid announcements lack production milestones. Jefferies estimates $7.8 billion in cumulative cash burn across 2025 and 2026, even assuming a slower capex pace than the $25 billion annual guidance.
SpaceX merger speculation compounds the gap. The market is pricing an imminent combination, voting structure preservation, and synergy upside — all of which Jefferies treats as longer-term optionality, not current valuation support.
The stock is pricing merger option value that remains speculative while ignoring fundamental cuts that are concrete, the analyst said. No competitor is scaling robotaxis quickly either, but that suggests the entire category remains speculative rather than offering reassurance.
The $375 price target implies a 7% downside from current levels, testing whether the market's narrative premium can hold without execution milestones. Investors will watch for FSD v15 release timing and any concrete robotaxi deployment data in the coming quarters.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
