TD Securities forecasts gold decline before recovery in 2026

COMEX gold faces near-term losses before a recovery materializes, TD Securities said in a June 26 research note that forecast a bearish short-term outlook for the precious metal.

The bank's commodities research team expects further downside for gold prices in the coming weeks, with a recovery to follow once selling pressure subsides, according to the note. The call, described as "more pain before recovery," targets a near-term decline before a medium-term rebound.

The report could trigger short-term selling in gold futures and gold exchange-traded funds, the note suggested. Investors may reduce gold exposure ahead of the expected decline, weighing on spot prices and derivatives markets. Gold mining stocks including Newmont Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp. could face headwinds during the drawdown phase, as lower bullion prices typically pressure producer margins.

The recovery call provides a medium-term floor for gold prices, with TD Securities anticipating a rebound after the initial selloff. The timing and magnitude of any recovery will depend on US macroeconomic data releases and central bank policy decisions that influence real yields and the dollar. A weaker dollar and lower real yields historically support gold, while a hawkish Federal Reserve could delay the recovery. The next key events for gold will be the US jobs report and inflation data, which shape expectations for the Fed's rate path.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.