Strait of Hormuz reopening may take 4 months to normalize oil flows

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces weeks-to-months of logistical delays as 80 mines, 118 stranded tankers and unresolved insurance questions prevent a swift return to normal oil flows, industry executives and shipping data providers said.

"The most likely scenario is a phased restart, with some form of traffic-management mechanism involving Iran and Oman," Adam Sharpe, vice president of editorial at Lloyd's List Intelligence, said. "The unresolved questions are significant: whether vessels need prior permission, whether Iran will impose service charges, and whether mines require a clearance process."

Before the war began Feb. 28, the strait handled 650 to 770 cargo-vessel transits per week, or roughly 90 to 110 per day, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence data. Kpler estimated 118 tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, while Intertanko said the main shipping channel must be cleared of 80 mines before normal traffic can resume. Four supertankers carrying about 8 million barrels of crude have transited since the deal, including the first Saudi-owned vessels since the conflict, Bloomberg vessel-tracking data showed.

The waterway normally carries about a fifth of globally traded oil, and the prolonged disruption has already pushed Brent above $80 before dipping on the deal news. Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent forecast to $80 for the fourth quarter of 2026 from $90 previously, but warned supply recovery "might be stronger." Rystad Energy estimated traffic could take four to six months to return to prewar levels, while Lloyd's List editor-in-chief Richard Meade said normal flows may not resume before year-end.

The gap between the political agreement and physical supply recovery creates a window of sustained tightness that energy markets are only beginning to price. While Iran committed to restoring traffic to pre-conflict levels within 30 days, shipping companies and insurers remain in a holding pattern. War-risk underwriters have yet to reinstate standard coverage, and without that, vessels will not move.

"The main route through the middle of the Strait of Hormuz, that's closed, that's dangerous," Phil Belcher, marine director at independent tanker owner trade body Intertanko, said. "We need to get the highway open so we can get the volume of traffic through safely."

Mine Clearance and Insurance Create a Multi-Week Bottleneck

Before traffic can return to normal, naval forces must certify safe transit corridors — a process expected to take at least several days. Iran and the U.S. need to coordinate mine clearance, which Intertanko said involves 80 mines in the main channel. "Until there is full certainty that there are no mines, the process will be slow and would take a few weeks since only a small passage is then available safely," Nikos Petrakakos, managing director at maritime investment manager Tufton, said.

Insurers add another layer of delay. "Underwriters will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: consistent safe transits, no interference, clarity on mine risk, and no renewed escalation," Sharpe said. Pricing is likely to remain highly sensitive to vessel flag, ownership and trading history. "A durable reduction in additional premiums will depend on sustained historic transit volumes and confidence that the reopening is not reversible," he added.

Energy Stocks Face a Supply Gap That Won't Close Quickly

For oil and gas producers, the extended timeline means elevated prices could persist longer than the initial market reaction suggested. Brent crude dipped below $80 on the deal announcement, but the physical reality of stranded tankers, damaged infrastructure and depleted inventories suggests the supply overhang will take weeks to clear and months to fully normalize.

QuantCube Technology data showed no meaningful increase in oil export departures from Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Iraq since the deal. In Saudi Arabia's Dammam region, which includes the Ras Tanura export complex, tankers have been loaded and sent offshore to wait since June 8, according to Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube. Most of the UAE's crude flows through Hormuz during the conflict involved ships "going dark" — turning off GPS to avoid detection — a practice Kpler said is likely to continue until freedom of navigation is clearly established.

The last comparable disruption — the 2023-2024 Red Sea crisis triggered by Houthi attacks — showed that even after de-escalatory signals, many operators remained reluctant to return without sustained proof of safety. Sharpe pointed to the Red Sea as a cautionary comparison, saying the same dynamic could play out in the Gulf.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.