SpaceX trades at 3.2x Morningstar's $62 fair value estimate

Morningstar's fair value for SpaceX implies a 69% downside from current levels, making the stock one of the most expensive in the research firm's coverage universe.

SpaceX's $2.64 trillion market cap — nearly matching Amazon's — trades at roughly 3.2 times Morningstar's $62 fair value estimate, a gap the research firm calls among the widest in its coverage.

"SpaceX is a remarkable business, but the stock price has detached from any reasonable fundamental anchor," Nicolas Owens, equity analyst at Morningstar, said. The firm cut its fair value to $62 from $63 after SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor.

SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 with a net loss of $4.9 billion, and losses widened to $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. At current prices, the stock trades at 141 times 2025 sales and roughly 78 times projected 2026 revenue of $36.8 billion — more than 26 times Amazon's multiple and over three times Broadcom's.

The valuation disconnect matters because SpaceX's post-IPO float remains small, early investors and employees face a 366-day lockup, and Elon Musk controls about 82% of voting power — governance risks that Morningstar said could lead to dilutive acquisitions. "The months ahead could be treacherous once early private investors and employees are allowed to sell their shares," Owens said.

The Bull Case vs. The Math

SpaceX bulls point to Starlink's constellation of roughly 9,600 satellites serving 164 countries, a reported $1 billion monthly compute contract from Google, and Musk's projection that revenue could reach approximately $1 trillion by 2030. The company has launched more than 80% of the world's mass into orbit each year since 2023, and its Falcon rockets maintain a mission success rate above 99%.

But Morningstar's probability-weighted discounted cash flow model — which the firm said gave SpaceX "a lot of benefit of the doubt" in two of three scenarios — still arrives at a $62 fair value. Even the most optimistic scenario values the stock at $154 per share, roughly 24% below Tuesday's close. CFRA started coverage with a sell rating and a $115 price target, while Oppenheimer's $190 target remains the Street high.

Governance and Competition Add Risk

Musk's 82.4% voting control means he can pursue large acquisitions — potentially including Tesla — without other shareholders' approval, Morningstar noted. Such deals would likely require issuing new shares, diluting existing holders. Meanwhile, Amazon's Project Kuiper, branded as Leo, is preparing to compete with Starlink. CEO Andy Jassy has said Leo will offer performance and cost advantages versus SpaceX's satellite internet service.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.