Key Takeaways:
SpaceX shares fell 3% in premarket trading after KeyBanc initiated coverage with a Sector Weight rating, saying the stock's valuation already reflects long-term growth.
"SpaceX is the dominant leader in space launch and space-adjacent verticals, but risk/reward appears balanced," Michael Leshock, analyst at KeyBanc, said in a note to clients.
Leshock assigned a Sector Weight rating — equivalent to neutral — with no price target. The stock trades at roughly 29 times price-to-sales and 71 times EV/EBITDA on KeyBanc's 2027 estimates, a premium to peers across space, AI and communications services. SpaceX commands a $2.44 trillion market capitalization with only about 5% of shares in the public float.
The cautious initiation comes as investors weigh whether SpaceX's three business segments — Starlink connectivity, launch services and the recently acquired xAI — can justify the premium. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025, while the AI segment remains loss-making despite securing contracts worth a combined $2.17 billion per month from Anthropic and Google.
Of the seven analysts covering SpaceX, six rate it a Buy and one — CFRA — rates it a Sell.
KeyBanc sees Starship's development timeline as the key variable. The next-generation rocket is critical to deploying Starlink V3 satellites and reducing launch costs through full reusability. Starship flight 13 is scheduled for June 29.
The AI segment, which houses the Grok chatbot and xAI computing infrastructure following the February 2026 merger, is expected to generate $50.6 billion in revenue by 2027, making it the largest growth driver over the medium term. However, KeyBanc flagged that Grok holds just 3.1% U.S. business adoption versus 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI, calling the next 12 to 24 months a "prove it phase."
Elon Musk's 42% stake in SpaceX is locked up until June 2027.
The Sector Weight rating suggests limited near-term upside from current levels, with the stock's fate tied to Starship's progress and AI segment execution. Investors will watch the June 29 Starship flight test for the next catalyst.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
