SpaceX drops 5.2% to $152 as analysts split on $2 trillion valuation

SpaceX shares tumbled 5.2% to $152.10 on Monday, extending a post-IPO pullback as the company prepares to join the Nasdaq 100.

SpaceX shares fell 5.2% to $152.10 on Monday, cutting the company's market capitalization to $2 trillion ahead of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index after the close.

"The stock is finding its equilibrium after a volatile debut," said Brian Dobson, analyst at Clear Street who initiated coverage with a buy rating and $217 price target, implying roughly 35% upside from current levels.

The decline extends a 29% retreat from the June 16 peak of about $214, when the rocket and satellite company debuted at a $2.1 trillion valuation following the largest initial public offering in history. Trading volume reached 83.8 million shares, reflecting elevated interest as the stock enters benchmark indexes. Analysts have issued a wide range of views: BofA Securities set a $235 target, Wells Fargo $230, Citi and Mizuho each at $200, while MoffettNathanson issued a neutral rating with a $131 target.

The selloff comes as SpaceX prepares to enter the Nasdaq 100 after Monday's close, a move expected to trigger at least $5.4 billion in passive buying from index-tracking funds. The company's $2 trillion market capitalization makes it the sixth-largest Nasdaq-listed firm, though its public float remains relatively small, limiting its initial index weighting to less than 1% in most benchmarks. Index providers including FTSE Russell and MSCI revised their methodologies to accommodate the company's rapid inclusion, drawing criticism from some investors who said the exceptions favored the company.

SpaceX reported $19.3 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with analysts projecting 95% sales growth in the current year, driven by Starlink's 10.3 million subscribers and three recent hyperscale AI compute contracts with Alphabet Inc., Anthropic, and Reflection AI valued at roughly $27.8 billion in annualized revenue. The company also completed a $25 billion debt sale in late June, which some investors said raised concerns about leverage tied to Musk's broader business empire.

The decline puts the stock at its lowest since the first week of trading after the June IPO. Investors will watch the Aug. 6 earnings report for management commentary on AI compute revenue growth and Starlink subscriber additions, which Clear Street identified as the next major catalyst.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.