Key Takeaways:
A Daiwa Securities analyst called SpaceX's valuation "catastrophic" on Thursday, while options desks spent the same morning buying near-the-money calls — a split that captures the tension defining the stock's first month of public trading.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares closed at $157.54 on July 1 and traded near $157 Thursday, down roughly 0.3%, after a three-day bounce that lifted the stock about 9% off recent lows. The company joins the NASDAQ 100 on July 7, a milestone that amplifies the stakes of the valuation debate.
"The valuation is catastrophic," a Daiwa Securities analyst said Thursday, according to CNBC's Oliver Renick, who covered the call during his July 2 segment. The critique echoes a broader skepticism that has followed SpaceX since its June 12 IPO. Jim Cramer said on his May 26 show that "it's very difficult to justify giving SpaceX a $2 trillion valuation. But the bottom line is that people have been willing to pay up in the private markets, and I bet they'll pay up in the public ones."
The public market has not fully obliged. SpaceX's current market cap stands at roughly $2.07 trillion, far above the $350 billion employee tender at the end of 2024 but well below the $2.24 trillion peak the stock touched shortly after listing.
Options flow tells a different story. "What we saw earlier in the week was some pretty big call buying in the 160 and the 170 strikes," Renick said. "Those right now are pretty close to the money." Near-the-money calls are the least speculative way to bet on directional movement — traders paying up for 160s and 170s while the stock sits near $158 want direct exposure to the next leg. Prediction markets echo that floor. On Polymarket, the probability SPCX finishes the week above $150 sits at 0.89, with the most likely weekly closure pegged at $155.
The NASDAQ 100 inclusion on Tuesday introduces a mechanical force that complicates both the bear and bull cases. Every fund tracking the index via the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and its peers must buy SpaceX shares to match the index. But what that imports is a stock trading with volatility at 88 into an index whose own volatility sits near 27. For reference, S&P 500 volatility is below 16, and even the semiconductor sector — the most volatile corner of US equities — trades at 60. The VIX itself closed at 16.45 on June 30.
"Space right now is going to add to the growing gap between NASDAQ 100 and S&P volatility, which is a spread that's at unprecedented highs," Renick said. QQQ is up 15.9% year to date and 29% over the past year. Adding SpaceX changes the size of the daily move for QQQ holders, many of whom never made an active decision to own the stock.
The takeaway for investors is not about which side is right. The valuation is stretched by any private-market comparison, and the near-term options flow is genuinely bullish. What changes on July 7 is that a passive NASDAQ 100 position becomes an active volatility position, whether the holder asked for it or not. The next catalyst is the index inclusion itself — forced buying from index funds on Tuesday will test whether the call buyers' conviction or the analyst's caution proves more accurate in the short term.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
