Key Takeaways:
Silver traded near $58.50 an ounce, down 52% from its January record, as a death cross pattern threatened to form on the daily chart for the first time since September 2024.
The 50-day moving average is on track to cross below the 200-day moving average, a signal that often precedes sustained selling, according to chart data compiled by TradingView.
Silver's relative strength index stood near 39, below the 40 threshold that signals fading momentum. The metal's 200-week moving average sits near $36, providing a long-term floor well below current levels. Bitcoin, which has also fallen roughly 52% from its peak to trade near $59,893, showed a similar weekly chart pattern, with both assets breaking key Fibonacci supports in recent weeks.
A confirmed death cross could accelerate selling across the precious metals complex, potentially dragging down gold and silver mining stocks. Silver's next major support stands at $54.50, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, with a break below that opening the path toward $50.
Strong Dollar Adds Pressure
The US dollar's strength has been a persistent headwind for silver, as a stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar index has climbed in recent months, compounding pressure on silver prices already weighed down by concerns over industrial demand. Gold, facing similar macro pressures, traded near $4,016.78 an ounce on Monday, also well below its recent highs.
Silver's 200-day exponential moving average near $60 now serves as resistance, capping any recovery attempts. The metal has struggled to reclaim that level since breaking below it in late May, with each bounce attracting fresh selling. The $60 level had previously acted as support in December before flipping to resistance.
What's Next for Silver
Traders are watching for the weekly COMEX inventory data and the upcoming US jobs report for June, which could influence the Federal Reserve's rate path and, by extension, the dollar's trajectory. Higher-for-longer interest rates have reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver and gold. The next major catalyst for silver prices will be the US nonfarm payrolls release on July 2, which may shape expectations for the Fed's July rate decision.
Silver's decline from its January peak of $121.76 represents a steeper correction than gold's, which has fallen about 18% from its own record. The divergence reflects silver's dual role as both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity, with the latter exposing it to weaker manufacturing activity in China and Europe. Among precious metals, silver has been the worst performer this year, underperforming both gold and platinum.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
