Key Takeaways:
Armed individuals on a small skiff opened fire on a container vessel and attempted to board it 14 nautical miles south of the Yemen coast on Monday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported, threatening Red Sea shipping lanes just as a fragile U.S.-Iran agreement on Strait of Hormuz passage took effect.
"The crew reported that the skiff opened fire on the vessel and that unknown personnel attempted to board the ship," UKMTO said in a statement, adding that the incident occurred roughly 16 miles off the coast of Yemen. The agency did not identify the vessel's flag state or operator, and no casualties have been confirmed.
The attack comes hours after President Donald Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been finalized, declaring the Strait of Hormuz open to traffic. "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" Trump wrote on social media. Under the agreement, Iran will allow free passage through the strait for 60 days, though a revised clause suggests Tehran and Oman reserve the right to determine the "future administration of maritime services" — language that could allow Iran to levy tolls on passing vessels, according to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21 percent of global oil trade, making any disruption a direct threat to crude supply. Brent crude futures fell more than 4 percent on the deal announcement but the Yemen attack reintroduces supply-side risk. The last time Houthi forces targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea — between November 2023 and early 2025 — container traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait fell more than 60 percent, shipping insurance premiums for the region surged fivefold, and Brent crude added about $8 a barrel over three months, according to data from the International Energy Agency and Lloyd's of London.
Red Sea Risk Returns
The Yemen coast attack sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, a chokepoint that connects to the Suez Canal. Any sustained disruption forces vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to Asia-to-Europe voyages and increasing fuel costs by roughly $1 million per round trip, according to shipping analytics firm Clarksons Research.
Israel's government has said it will not withdraw forces from Lebanon and Syria, Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed Monday, despite the U.S.-Iran agreement. That stance, combined with Houthi threats against Israel-linked shipping, keeps the broader regional risk premium elevated. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has urged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to impose sanctions on any country or entity enabling Iran's potential toll system, adding a layer of policy uncertainty.
What's at Stake
For investors, the key question is whether the Yemen attack is an isolated incident or the start of a new wave of maritime disruptions. If Houthi-aligned forces resume targeting commercial vessels, shipping costs will rise, crude oil will command a higher risk premium, and safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar may strengthen. Gold traded near $2,340 an ounce Monday, up 3.4 percent on the week, as geopolitical risk repriced across asset classes.
The 60-day Hormuz window gives markets a temporary floor, but the Yemen attack shows that the broader security environment remains unstable. The next test comes when the free-passage period expires — and whether Iran's toll ambitions trigger a new round of U.S. sanctions that could close the strait again.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
