Restaurants Face 8% Spending Cut as GLP-1 Use Surges

A surge in the use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is denting restaurant sales, with a recent Cornell University study finding that households with a user reduced spending at fast-food and quick-service chains by 8% within six months. The shift in consumer behavior is forcing restaurant executives to rethink menus and marketing as millions of Americans eat out less, make healthier choices, and skip alcoholic beverages.

"We need to have our eyes wide open and adapt,” Domino’s Pizza Chief Executive Russell Weiner said in an interview earlier this year. “Diets are changing.”

The scale of the trend is significant, with polling firm Gallup finding that more than 12% of Americans reported taking GLP-1 drugs last fall, up from 6% in early 2024. J.P. Morgan analysts estimate that more than 30 million Americans could be taking these medications by 2030, up from about 10 million this year. In response, chains like Panera Bread and Olive Garden are launching lighter menu options, while others like McDonald's have begun promoting the protein content in their food.

The financial stakes are high, prompting some of the largest U.S. restaurant chains, including Cheesecake Factory and Texas Roadhouse, to list the growing use of GLP-1 drugs as a potential risk to their business in investor filings. The trend appears to be benefiting fast-casual brands like Chipotle, which offer customizable and perceived healthier options, while legacy fast-food brands centered on fried foods and large portions could lose market share.

Quieting the 'Food Noise'

A key driver of this behavioral shift is the drugs' impact on what researchers call "food noise" — persistent and intrusive thoughts about food. A recent study presented at the European Congress on Obesity provided the first empirical evidence that GLP-1s significantly reduce these thoughts. The research, which used a validated Food Noise Questionnaire (FNQ), found that participants taking a GLP-1 drug alongside a behavioral program saw their food noise scores decrease by a mean of 4.05 points in one month. This was a substantially greater reduction than the 1.15-point drop observed in the group using the behavioral program alone.

Researchers believe this quieting of food-related thoughts may be an early indicator of treatment response and helps explain why users find it easier to make different food choices. The drugs mimic hormones that boost insulin, slow stomach emptying, and, crucially, target areas of the brain that regulate appetite and food cravings. This neurological impact is what diminishes the constant mental chatter about food, making smaller portions more satisfying and high-calorie foods less appealing.

A Tale of Two Menus

In response to their changing customers, restaurants are actively adapting. Panera Bread, after discovering that 17% of its surveyed customers were taking GLP-1s, began offering new options like salads stuffed inside Italian bread and deals on half-sandwich combos. Olive Garden, famous for its unlimited breadsticks, rolled out a "Lighter-Sized Entrees" menu nationwide, with parent company Darden Restaurants noting that customers who order from it are increasing their visit frequency.

The strategy is not uniform. While some companies create new, smaller items, others are rebranding existing ones. KFC, for example, is highlighting the protein in its chicken and promoting smaller, snack-sized portions. McDonald’s has also started to emphasize the protein content of its food, aiming to appeal to GLP-1 users who are often advised to increase protein intake to prevent muscle loss. This contrasts with the experience of Kaye Kohlmann, a GLP-1 user from Wisconsin, who now opts for an 8-ounce steak at Texas Roadhouse instead of her previous 20-ounce rib-eye, and whose husband can no longer finish his once-standard large order from Taco Bell.

The trend has created a clear divergence. Brands like Chipotle, where users can customize bowls to specific calorie and protein counts, are frequently cited as a preferred choice by GLP-1 users. Meanwhile, chains known for "gluttonous" portions, as one former Cheesecake Factory regular described her past visits, are facing a more difficult path to retaining customers who have fundamentally changed their relationship with food.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.