NuScale Power drops 30% in 2026 as SMR sales remain elusive

NuScale Power has the only US-certified small modular reactor design but has yet to sign a single commercial sale, leaving investors to weigh a $10 trillion addressable market against an unproven business model.

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) shares have fallen 30% in 2026 and 75% over the past 12 months, erasing most of the gains from last year's nuclear energy rally. The Portland, Oregon-based developer of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) — factory-built units typically under 300 megawatts that can be linked together — holds the distinction of being the only US company with a design certified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It has yet to deploy a single commercial reactor.

"The SMR opportunity is real, but NuScale needs to convert its pipeline into signed contracts before the market will re-rate the stock," said Lucas Herrera, energy transition analyst at Edgen. "Without a definitive sale, the company remains a pre-revenue developer with high cash burn and no proof of manufacturing economics."

The demand backdrop is favorable. Electricity consumption in the US is projected to rise sixfold as artificial intelligence data centers and electric vehicles strain the grid. Data centers alone consumed 4.4% of total US electricity in 2023, up from 1.9% in 2018, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory projects that share could reach 12% by 2028. SMRs, which can be sited closer to population centers than conventional reactors and built in factories rather than on-site, are positioned as a potential solution for hyperscalers seeking dedicated baseload power.

NuScale has two active development projects. It is working with a Romanian state-owned power company on a six-reactor plant, though financing has not been secured. A separate partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority and ENTRA1 Energy remains in early-stage planning. Neither project has reached a definitive agreement, and construction timelines likely extend into the 2030s.

The company's technology uses light-water reactor design with uranium fuel enriched to less than 20%, a standard that aligns with existing fuel supply chains. Each power module generates 77 megawatts of electricity, and up to 12 modules can be combined at a single site to reach utility-scale output. NuScale says its design incorporates passive safety systems that require no operator intervention or external power to shut down.

Bank of America has estimated the global nuclear opportunity at $10 trillion, driven by data center demand and decarbonization mandates. But the gap between addressable market and commercial reality is wide. NuScale has not demonstrated it can build an SMR at a competitive cost or that its reactors will operate reliably once connected to the grid. Even after a first sale is signed, years of construction and regulatory review will pass before the company generates meaningful revenue.

Competing technologies are advancing. Bloom Energy has secured power purchase agreements with data center operators using fuel cells, offering a faster deployment timeline than nuclear. Conventional reactor builders such as Westinghouse and GE Hitachi continue to pursue larger-scale projects, while SMR rivals including X-energy and TerraPower are developing their own designs, though none has received NRC certification.

For aggressive growth investors, the 75% decline from the October 2025 peak offers a lower entry point into a technology with structural demand tailwinds. But the stock remains a binary bet on execution. Until NuScale signs a binding sales agreement and demonstrates manufacturing viability, the risk of further downside outweighs the upside for most portfolios.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.