Novo Nordisk's 54.6% GLP-1 share tops Viking's obesity drug challenge

Novo Nordisk holds 54.6% of the global GLP-1 market with Ozempic and Wegovy, while Viking Therapeutics has no approved products and expects 2026 losses to widen 47%.

"Novo Nordisk, despite near-term headwinds from pricing pressure and intensifying competition, remains the stronger investment choice," the Zacks Investment Research analysis said. "Its established portfolio of blockbuster GLP-1 medicines and diversified late-stage pipeline provide multiple growth drivers."

Novo Nordisk's 2026 sales are expected to decline about 2.45% year over year, with EPS falling 13.64%, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. EPS estimates for 2026 have trended upward over the past 60 days. Viking Therapeutics' 2026 loss per share is expected to widen 47.34%, with loss estimates widening over the same period. Year to date, NVO shares have lost 5.5%, while VKTX shares have gained 8.2%. The industry has returned 11.7% over the same period.

The comparison highlights the contrast between an established pharmaceutical giant and a high-risk, high-reward biotech. NVO trades at 6.75 times trailing book value, while VKTX trades at 8.8 times. Viking's lead candidate, VK2735, is in two phase III studies — VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2 — with data not expected until 2027, leaving the stock's near-term trajectory dependent on maintenance dosing data due in the third quarter of 2026.

Wegovy Pill Surpasses 3 Million Prescriptions

Novo Nordisk has pursued label expansions across its semaglutide portfolio. In late December, the FDA approved the 25 mg oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill) for obesity and cardiovascular disease, which surpassed 3 million prescriptions since its January launch. The FDA also approved oral Ozempic (1.5 mg, 4 mg, and 9 mg) for adults with type II diabetes. A supplemental application for a higher 25 mg tablet is under review, with a decision expected by the end of 2026.

The company has submitted a regulatory filing for CagriSema injection, a follow-up to Wegovy, for obesity. Its mid-stage asset, amycretin, showed strong weight-loss efficacy in a phase II study and is slated to enter phase III. Beyond GLP-1s, Novo Nordisk is building a rare disease franchise, securing U.S. and EU approvals for Alhemo to treat hemophilia A and B. The company faces intensifying competition from Eli Lilly, which recently secured FDA approval of its oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron (Foundayo), directly competing with NVO's Wegovy pill.

Viking's Phase III Data Due in 2027

Viking Therapeutics started two phase III studies for VK2735 subcutaneous injection last year. VANQUISH-1 enrolled about 4,500 obese adults without type II diabetes, while VANQUISH-2 enrolled about 1,000 patients with type II diabetes. Both studies completed enrollment, but data are not expected until 2027. The company is on track to initiate late-stage studies of the oral formulation later in 2026.

Viking recently advanced a second obesity candidate, VK3019, a dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist, into a phase I study. Unlike VK2735, VK3019 is designed to activate amylin and calcitonin receptors, potentially enabling use as both a standalone therapy and in combination with existing weight-loss drugs. The company expects to report subcutaneous maintenance data in the third quarter of 2026, followed by oral maintenance data in the first half of 2027.

For investors, Novo Nordisk offers a proven commercial franchise with consistent cash flows and global scale, while Viking Therapeutics provides exposure to the potential upside of a clinical-stage innovator. The key catalyst for NVO is the CagriSema regulatory decision and the 25 mg oral Ozempic FDA decision by the end of 2026. For VKTX, the third-quarter 2026 maintenance dosing data will be the next major inflection point before the phase III readouts in 2027.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.