Nebius and CoreWeave surge 7% as AI compute stocks rebound

AI infrastructure stocks are rebounding as investors refocus on contracted revenue and long-term demand.

Nebius Group and CoreWeave each surged more than 7% in early trading Monday, extending a rebound in AI compute stocks after weeks of sector-wide selling.

"The market is rediscovering that AI infrastructure demand hasn't peaked — it's just rotating toward companies with contracted revenue," said Rachel Kim, analyst at Edgen.

Nebius shares climbed past $184, recovering from a 42% decline from its June 22 high of $299. The move followed Freedom Capital's upgrade to Buy from Hold with a $200 price target, up from $150. CoreWeave traded above its recent range as well, with both stocks tracking each other higher in a coordinated sector move.

The rally suggests investors are returning to AI infrastructure names after a sharp pullback. Nebius holds more than $40 billion in contracted revenue from Microsoft and Meta, including a $27 billion deal with Meta starting in early 2027. The company's Q1 revenue hit $399 million, up 684% from a year earlier, while its $775 million debt facility closed last month provides additional runway for its Vineland, New Jersey data center buildout.

Nebius's backlog of signed contracts — $46 billion in total — gives it revenue visibility rare among early-stage infrastructure companies. The company expects to generate $3 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026 and $33.3 billion by 2030, according to its long-range model. Wolfe Research projects Nebius could reach $21 billion in EBITDA by 2030, which at 15 to 20 times EBITDA would imply an enterprise value of $315 billion to $420 billion.

The rebound also lifts CoreWeave, Nebius's primary neocloud competitor. Both companies operate in the AI infrastructure layer between GPU suppliers like Nvidia and hyperscalers racing to deploy artificial intelligence at scale. Nvidia invested $2 billion in Nebius in March, a vote of confidence that helped drive the stock to its June peak before the subsequent selloff.

Jim Cramer warned on July 16 that Nebius was "not done going down," calling the entry point wrong despite calling the company "very good." The stock has since found a floor above $170, with technical support near the 100-day moving average at $174.

For investors, the question is whether the sector's fundamental demand — driven by hyperscaler capital spending that topped $200 billion combined in 2025 — can absorb the capacity Nebius and CoreWeave are building. With contracted revenue already in place, the risk lies less in demand and more in execution: construction timelines, GPU availability, and the capital intensity of building AI factories at hyperscale.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.