NATO Weighs Hormuz Role as 1,000 Ships Remain Trapped by Iran

The world's most critical oil chokepoint has been closed for over two months, and now the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is considering getting involved.

NATO allies are informally discussing a potential military role in the Strait of Hormuz as economic fears grow over Iran's nearly three-month blockade of the critical waterway, which handles over 20 percent of the world's oil supply. The discussions mark a significant potential escalation in a conflict that has already seen energy prices spike and has left more than a thousand commercial vessels stranded.

"These are informal discussions, but the situation is dynamic," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said to reporters in Brussels on Wednesday, adding that he has been thinking about "whether NATO could play a positive role."

The news sent immediate ripples through global markets. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, jumped 2.5 percent to $128.50 a barrel on the uncertainty, while gold prices climbed 1.1 percent as investors sought safe-haven assets. The situation highlights the world's vulnerability to the chokepoint, a narrow artery for global trade that Iran has successfully weaponized.

At stake is a new form of geopolitical leverage that Iran has secured against the United States and its allies. By closing the strait and demonstrating its willingness to disrupt global energy supplies, Tehran has created a powerful "insurance policy" against foreign intervention, a strategy that has so far checkmated direct military responses and left Western powers searching for a viable path to reopen the waterway.

The Strategy of 'Triangular Coercion'

Outmatched militarily, Iran has effectively gained the upper hand through a strategy scholars call "triangular coercion." According to Daniel Sobelman, a professor at Hebrew University, the strategy involves attacking a vulnerable third party—in this case, U.S. allies in the Gulf—to exert pressure on a more powerful adversary.

The crucial turning point came on March 18, when Iran retaliated against an Israeli strike on its South Pars gas field by bombing a major liquefied natural gas facility in Qatar and launching drone attacks on refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The move "introduced an equation," Sobelman noted, making it clear that any attack on Iran's energy infrastructure would be met with a direct blow to the Gulf's, and by extension, the world's, energy supply. The retaliation immediately caused oil prices to spike and led to a notable de-escalation from the U.S.

A Failed Response and Rising Stakes

The effectiveness of Iran's strategy was further underscored by the failure of unilateral U.S. efforts to break the blockade. In early May, President Trump announced "Project Freedom," an operation intended to guide stranded ships out of the strait. The plan was abandoned just days later in a quiet retreat that spoke volumes about Iran's capacity to deter the U.S. Navy, leaving over a thousand vessels and their crews in limbo.

The longer the stalemate continues, the more likely it is that Iran will emerge from the conflict with a valuable new asset: de facto control over the world's most important oil chokepoint. Any resolution will now likely require concessions that legitimize Iran as a key stakeholder in the strait's operation, a scenario that could permanently alter the geopolitical balance in the Middle East and demonstrate the limits of U.S. power.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.