Key Takeaways:
Morgan Stanley lifted its Rocket Lab bull-case target to $293, implying roughly 260% upside from the stock's current $81.45.
The bank reiterated its Overweight rating and $105 base case, citing the growth runway of Rocket Lab's space-systems division and the $8 billion Iridium acquisition announced June 29, according to the note.
RKLB shares have fallen 17.94% over the past week and 24.23% over the past month as the broader space sector sold off after SpaceX's June IPO. The stock sits 46% below its 52-week high of $151. Consensus stands at $114.10, making Morgan Stanley's bull case 157% above the Street average.
Reaching $293 by year-end 2026 would require Neutron's on-time debut, the Iridium closing by mid-2027, and major Golden Dome awards converting to signed dollars. The $151 billion Golden Dome opportunity represents the largest potential catalyst.
Rocket Lab reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $200.35 million, up 63.5% year over year, with a record $2.20 billion backlog and 70-plus contracted missions. The company's VICTUS HAZE mission for the U.S. Space Force achieved a record 16-hour, 42-minute responsive launch.
The Iridium acquisition adds 2.5 million recurring subscribers, while recent M&A — Geost's $325 million sensor purchase, Mynaric, and Motiv — builds an end-to-end space platform. The $816 million SDA Tranche 3 contract and Golden Dome selection with Raytheon provide additional defense revenue streams.
At $81.45, RKLB trades at roughly 92 times sales against 63.5% quarterly revenue growth. A $293 price implies a market capitalization near $184.3 billion, up from the current $47.15 billion, based on 629 million basic weighted average shares outstanding.
The primary risk is Neutron slippage beyond late 2026, which would delay medium-lift revenue and potentially trigger further equity dilution from ATM offerings. Morgan Stanley's $293 call captures the optionality tied to Neutron, defense contracts, and the Iridium deal closing on schedule.
The bull-case target signals institutional conviction that Rocket Lab can evolve from a small-launch operator into a vertically integrated space platform. Investors will watch Neutron's debut later this year and the Iridium deal's regulatory timeline as the next key catalysts.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
