Key Takeaways:
AMC Entertainment shares surged 12% after Macquarie raised its price target to $2, citing stronger-than-expected box office demand.
Macquarie maintained its Neutral rating on the stock but lifted its target from $1.50, implying about 3% upside from the current price of $1.94. The firm also raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $629 million from $600 million and narrowed its projected full-year adjusted loss to 24 cents per share from a prior estimate of 28 cents.
The upgrade follows a stronger-than-expected second quarter for domestic box office admissions, which reached $2.97 billion, up 11% year-over-year and the strongest Q2 in six years. Major releases including "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," "Michael" and "Toy Story 5" drove attendance, along with surprise hits such as "Obsession" and "Backrooms." Macquarie raised its 2026 industry box office forecast to $9.8 billion, up 13% year-over-year.
AMC traded at $1.94, sitting 6.9% above its 50-day moving average of $1.81 and 4.4% above its 200-day moving average of $1.85, suggesting buyers are defending the intermediate trend. The stock remains 9.9% below its 20-day moving average of $2.15, indicating near-term overhead supply. The relative strength index stood at 48.82, a neutral reading that suggests the rally reflects a reset rather than an overbought breakout.
The stock has fallen more than 15% in the past week after a $200 million equity sale priced June 23 halted momentum from a June rally that pushed shares to their highest level this year. The company plans to use proceeds from the offering to reduce debt. AMC has declined 99% since its 2013 IPO. Trading volume reached 52.6 million shares, about 35% above its three-month average of 39 million shares. Among rivals, Cinemark Holdings closed at $29.42, down 1.77%, while Marcus Corp. closed at $21.94, down 1.83%.
The Macquarie upgrade shows institutional confidence in the theatrical exhibition sector's recovery. Investors will watch AMC's August earnings report for evidence that summer attendance trends can sustain the recovery and whether alternative revenue streams such as Arena One in-theater concerts can help regain momentum.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
