Israel threatens pre-emptive strikes on Iran, Hezbollah after US deal

Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman threatened unilateral pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and key Iranian oil infrastructure, vowing Israel will not be bound by the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal signed June 17.

"The memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran has fully legitimized Iran's nuclear ambitions and paved the way for a final agreement far worse than President Obama's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action," Lieberman wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published Monday. "Israel must immediately adopt a clear and decisive strategy to confront the dangerous ramifications of this grave diplomatic collapse."

The 14-point MOU, signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, grants Iran immediate waivers to export crude oil and petroleum products, commits to removing all sanctions within 60 days, and pledges $300 billion for reconstruction. The deal pauses a conflict that disrupted global energy markets since February, but Israel — which was not a party to the negotiations — has signaled it will maintain military operations against Iran-backed forces.

Lieberman, who heads the Yisrael Beitenu party and is a candidate for prime minister, outlined a sweeping new security doctrine. He called for establishing an Israeli missile corps armed with 20,000 ballistic and cruise missiles, 30,000 unmanned aerial vehicles and 24,000 rockets, arguing Israel is overly dependent on U.S. aircraft, munitions and refueling for strikes on Iran.

"Should the Islamic Republic attack the state of Israel, our forces will destroy Kharg Island as well as the port of Bandar Abbas, including all of their infrastructure," Lieberman wrote. Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, making it the single most critical node in the country's energy supply chain. Bandar Abbas serves as Iran's primary commercial port on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21% of global seaborne oil trade passes.

Oil Market Risk Premium

The threat to Iranian oil infrastructure injects a fresh geopolitical risk premium into crude markets. Brent crude has already priced in supply disruption uncertainty since the February conflict began, and the prospect of strikes on Kharg Island — which has no near-term replacement capacity — could push prices higher. Options skew for Brent has widened as traders hedge against a supply shock scenario.

The last time Iranian oil infrastructure came under direct threat was during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when Iraq's attacks on Kharg Island cut Iran's export capacity by more than 50% over several months, sending oil prices sharply higher. The current context differs: global spare capacity held by OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, stands at roughly 4 million barrels per day, providing a theoretical buffer. But a sudden loss of Iran's 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day of exports would test that cushion.

Lieberman also rejected any linkage between the U.S.-Iran agreement and Lebanon. "We can't allow Hezbollah to return to its previous strength," he wrote, warning that sanctions relief in Iran means mass armament in Lebanon. Hezbollah possesses an estimated 100,000 to 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided Fateh-110 and M-600 missiles with ranges of 250 to 300 kilometers capable of striking Israeli population centers and infrastructure.

"If Hezbollah launches missiles, drones or unmanned aerial vehicles at Israeli communities, the response must be overwhelming," Lieberman said. "All of Hezbollah's command headquarters, control centers and logistical infrastructure in Beirut and Baalbek must become targets."

Diplomatic Fallout

The MOU has drawn sharp criticism in Washington. Republican Senator Bill Cassidy called it "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades," while Senator Ted Cruz warned that "giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is a bad idea." Senator Lindsey Graham offered cautious support, saying the memorandum could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote Tuesday on X: "With an agreement, without an agreement — as long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel, Iran will not have nuclear weapons."

The 60-day negotiation window for a final deal opens with both sides holding divergent interpretations. Iran's leadership has framed the MOU as a validation of its nuclear program's legitimacy, while the U.S. administration describes it as a temporary pause requiring further verification. Israel's explicit rejection of the deal's terms and its threat of pre-emptive military action create a three-way standoff that could unravel the ceasefire before a final agreement is reached.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.