Key Takeaways:
Israel's military published a map Thursday showing an expanded zone of control in southern Lebanon, directly challenging the US-Iran interim pact that calls for a full withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanese territory.
The Israel Defense Forces released the updated map as its frontline troops in the region now have "freedom of action," spokesman DeFrin said, with the new boundaries showing Israeli forces operating several kilometers deeper into Lebanon — including near the Hezbollah stronghold of Nabatieh north of the Litani River. The military described the territory, marked in dark red, as "the security zone in which IDF soldiers are operating in southern Lebanon."
"The maximum time available for the enemy to completely withdraw from Lebanese territory is exactly two months," Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, said in a statement Thursday. He added that Israel must cease hostilities "by land, sea, and air" and begin withdrawing "without the need for any direct negotiations."
The escalation comes two days after US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on Wednesday, an interim pact aimed at ending the US-Israeli war that began Feb. 28. The agreement calls for an "immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon," and commits to "guaranteeing Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty." Two Israeli officials, including one close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told Reuters that Israel was holding "stubborn" talks with the US over maintaining its troop deployment in southern Lebanon.
Oil and safe-haven assets in focus
Brent crude futures rose as much as 1.8% in early trading Thursday as the intensification of hostilities threatened to disrupt regional stability, while gold gained 0.6% to near $2,350 an ounce as investors rotated into haven assets. The last time Israel expanded its buffer zone in southern Lebanon — in April, when it first published a map of its so-called security area — Brent crude added $3.20 a barrel over the following week while the shekel weakened 1.4% against the dollar.
Israel has been bombarding Lebanon since March 2, killing 3,912 people, wounding 11,873 others and displacing more than 1 million, according to the latest official figures. Israeli forces have advanced more than 10 kilometers into Lebanese territory during the invasion, which began in response to rocket fire by the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.
Ceasefire agreed but tensions persist
A senior US official told Reuters that Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire beginning at 4 p.m. local time Friday (1300 GMT), after overnight Israeli airstrikes killed at least 18 people in Lebanon and Hezbollah attacks killed four Israeli soldiers in one of the deadliest single incidents for Israeli forces during the war. The official said negotiators for the US and Qataris worked out the deal with help from Iran.
Despite the ceasefire agreement, Israel has rejected calls to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has vowed not to pull back until "security is restored," and the military's new map suggests Israel is entrenching its position rather than preparing for a pullout. The outcome of the US-Israel talks "will ultimately depend on whether Trump decides to force the issue by threatening repercussions," one Israeli official said.
The US-Iran pact appears to leave Israel with some "wiggle room," said Jonathan Rynhold, a senior researcher at Bar-Ilan University. "The reference to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon certainly implies that Israel will have to withdraw. However, it also implies that Hezbollah should not be able to hold weapons because that is a threat to the sovereignty of the government of Lebanon."
A fifth round of Lebanon-Israel talks is scheduled for June 22 in Washington, where Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has instructed his delegation to insist on a permanent ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal, deployment of the Lebanese army to the border, and the return of Lebanese detainees. Whether the ceasefire holds — and whether Israel's expanded buffer zone becomes a permanent feature — will determine the trajectory of the broader US-Iran détente and the stability of Middle Eastern energy markets.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
