Iran warns regional states as Hormuz traffic plunges 66%

Iran will continue to hold Middle Eastern nations accountable for joining US and Israeli military operations against the Islamic Republic, the foreign ministry said Monday.

Iran threatened to retaliate against Middle Eastern nations that participated in US-Israeli strikes, escalating regional tensions just as Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed 66% to 12 vessels Sunday.

"Iran will continue to hold those involved in aggression against Iran accountable," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Monday via the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, without naming specific countries.

The warning comes one day after the first round of US-Iran talks at Switzerland's Burgenstock resort produced a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, including a de-confliction cell for Lebanon and a communication line for the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime intelligence firm Windward recorded just 12 transits through the strategic waterway Sunday, down from 35 a day earlier, as Iran's de facto blockade tightened. The strait handles about 21% of global oil trade, and the disruption has already sent shockwaves through energy markets.

The threat risks unraveling tentative diplomatic progress just as technical negotiations are set to begin. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said sanctions on oil exports and petrochemical sales had been waived and some frozen assets released, though the US has yet to confirm those concessions. If the blockade persists, global energy markets face supply disruption that could push crude prices higher and trigger a broader risk-off shift across equities and currencies.

The Islamic Republic's warning targets unspecified Middle Eastern governments that facilitated or participated in the US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February 2026, triggering a 12-day war. The conflict saw Israel pound Iranian nuclear and military sites before the US joined, attacking three nuclear facilities. Iran responded by targeting a US military base in Qatar, causing limited damage. The war ended with a Trump-brokered ceasefire in late June 2025, but the underlying tensions never fully dissipated.

The last time Iran issued similar threats against regional neighbors during the 2019-2020 escalation, Brent crude surged 27% over three months while the S&P 500 fell 12% as the Cboe Volatility Index spiked above 40, according to Bloomberg data. The parallel is not exact — diplomatic channels are now open, and both sides have signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding — but the market reaction could mirror that playbook if the rhetoric translates into military action.

Diplomatic Progress Faces First Test

The Lebanon de-confliction cell agreed at Burgenstock represents what Araghchi called the "first real test" of the accord. Israeli forces remain in a 602-square-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon, roughly 6% of the country's territory, while Hezbollah has yet to publicly comment on the agreement. US Vice President JD Vance, who led Washington's delegation alongside Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff, described the talks as "a very, very good day" and said technical negotiations would continue in the "weeks and days to come." Iran's delegation was led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Energy Markets on Edge

The Strait of Hormuz disruption has already triggered a global energy crisis. Iran's Saturday announcement that it was closing the waterway again over Israeli operations in Lebanon sent crude benchmarks higher, though specific price data was not yet disclosed. An analysis by Windward showed the 66% drop in daily transits represents the most severe disruption since Iran first threatened to close the strait in 2019. The 14-point MoU signed June 17 includes a US commitment to "terminate all types of sanctions against" Iran and unfreeze restricted assets, but Congress remains skeptical. "Congress is very unhappy with this deal right now," said Thomas Warrick, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "It is not at all clear that Congress would agree to lift some of those sanctions." Vance said Monday that if Iranian assets are unfrozen, they will be used to buy American agricultural products.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.