Iran rejects Trump's strike threat as 60-day nuclear deal timeline stalls

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said its armed forces are ready to retaliate, after Trump threatened to "again hit Iran very hard" if it fails to stop proxies in Lebanon, escalating tensions just as US and Iranian delegations opened talks in Switzerland.

"Don't they think to themselves that if their threats had any effect, they wouldn't have reached the point of desperation they are in today?" Ghalibaf, who is leading Iran's negotiating team in Switzerland, said in a post on X. "We don't count on the American threats."

The exchange came as the first round of quadrilateral talks — mediated by Pakistan and Qatar at the Lake Lucerne Summit in Buergenstock — paused for internal consultations after about 80 minutes. Iran's state broadcaster reported that the nuclear program was not discussed, with priority given to implementing the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed June 18. That accord set a 60-day timeline for resolving the nuclear standoff, contingent on a broader regional ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's petroleum passes, remains the central leverage point. Iran's effective closure since the war began Feb. 28 has sent global fuel prices surging and rattled the world economy. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 67 ships transited the strait in the past 24 hours, though Iran has not yet de-mined the central shipping channel.

Nuclear Talks Stall as Lebanon Conflict Intrudes

The MOU between Washington and Tehran was already under strain before the latest escalation. On June 19-20, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a truce after intensified clashes, but the damage to the diplomatic calendar was done. Iran's decision to pull out of planned nuclear negotiations in Switzerland last week showed that Tehran views the Lebanon conflict as a central obstacle to any nuclear agreement.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, from which the US withdrew in 2018, represented the last structured framework for nuclear talks. Since then, Iran has steadily increased enrichment levels while the two countries engaged in an escalating cycle of sanctions and military posturing. The June 18 MOU was the first structured framework since the JCPOA's collapse.

The broader conflict has exacted a heavy toll. More than 4,100 people have been killed in Lebanon since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah began March 2, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. In Iran, more than 1,900 people have died since the war started, while 13 US service members have been killed.

Oil Markets Face Renewed Supply Risk

Brent crude prices have remained elevated as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz persists. The waterway handled about 21 percent of global oil consumption before the conflict. The last time a similar threat to widen strikes emerged in late February, Brent surged more than 12 percent in two weeks as traders priced in supply disruption risk, according to ICE data.

Iran's National Oil Company said more than 25 million barrels of Iranian oil have passed through the virtual blockade since Monday, suggesting Tehran is maintaining some export capacity despite US naval efforts to enforce a blockade since April 13. The US military said it sank six Iranian small boats Monday as it moved to reopen the strait, while the UAE reported its first attack from Iran since the fragile ceasefire took hold in early April.

The war has already reshaped global energy flows. Iraq plans to restore crude output to between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels per day, levels achieved before the conflict disrupted supply chains. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius blamed Trump for the strait's closure, saying "the cork in the bottle neck of the Strait of Hormuz was pushed in by Donald Trump."

Gold, a traditional safe haven, has gained as investors hedge against further escalation. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, has remained elevated above its long-term average since the conflict began, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the trajectory of the war and its economic consequences.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.