Iran gets immediate oil sales as US deal lifts Strait blockade

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 14 grants Tehran immediate sanctions waivers to sell oil and fuel, ending a three-month blockade that removed roughly 20% of global crude supply from markets.

The US will allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel sales under a deal to end the war, offering Tehran an early financial incentive as two Iranian supertankers crossed the American blockade for the first time since April.

"This is a multibillion-dollar concession to Iran," said Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors. "After months of blockade pressures, Washington has chosen to provide Tehran with an irreversible financial benefit."

The sanctions waivers, effective upon signing, also cover banking, transportation and insurance needed to facilitate crude exports, according to people familiar with the agreement. Iran has more than 100 million barrels of oil in storage and on tankers, with over 60 million barrels outside the US blockade, Erickson said. Two supertankers — the Diona and Hero II — departed Iran's Chabahar port and sailed past the blockade into the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, according to United Against Nuclear Iran and MarineTraffic data.

The deal removes a critical supply risk that had pushed crude prices higher and threatened global economic growth. Brent crude fell more than 5% on Tuesday to a three-month low as traders priced in the return of Iranian supply. The memorandum of understanding, which both sides signed electronically Sunday and will formalize in Geneva on June 19, also lifts the US naval blockade and calls for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows — without tolls.

A performance-based agreement with conditions

A senior US official described the deal as "a performance-based agreement," warning that Iran can access benefits only if it abides by all points — including no nuclear weapon, neutralizing its enriched material, and not interfering with navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran currently holds 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The agreement sets the stage for extended talks on Iran's nuclear program over the next 60 days.

The last time the US offered Iran significant sanctions relief was under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump withdrew from in 2018. That deal unlocked roughly $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Under the current framework, Iran has an estimated $100 billion in assets rendered inaccessible by US sanctions, mainly revenue from past oil sales held abroad — including about $6 billion in Qatar, $1 billion in Oman, and $15 billion in Iraqi banks. Iran had sought $12 billion upfront and $24 billion during the 60-day negotiation period, people familiar with the talks said.

Oil markets price in the supply wave

The immediate resumption of Iranian oil sales is expected to add significant supply to global markets. Iran can quickly sell the 100 million barrels it has in storage, Erickson said, with more than 60 million barrels already outside the blockade zone. The world consumes about 100 million barrels of oil a day, meaning the release of Iranian inventories alone could cover roughly one day of global demand.

WTI crude fell 5.28% to $76.49 a barrel on Tuesday, while Brent declined to a three-month low. The selloff reflects the removal of the supply risk premium that had built up since the US imposed its naval blockade on April 17, effectively shutting Iranian exports. The broader macro impact includes potential cooling of inflation expectations, which could influence central bank policy paths across developed economies.

The agreement also includes discussion of a $300 billion regional reconstruction and development fund for Iran to repair war damage, though Trump said on social media the US would not contribute. Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the White House views the upfront oil relief as a necessary sweetener. "The White House thinks these kinds of sweeteners are required to make Iran continue negotiations," Nadimi said. He added that the US could reimpose its blockade as long as it keeps military assets in the region.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.