Key Takeaways:
- AI infrastructure stocks to contribute ~60% of S&P 500 Q2 EPS growth
- Micron and Nvidia combined to account for more than 40% of that growth
- S&P 500 earnings trend strong enough to exceed already-high analyst expectations
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Goldman Sachs sees AI stocks driving 60% of S&P 500 Q2 earnings
Goldman Sachs strategists said S&P 500 companies are poised for another strong earnings season, with AI infrastructure stocks driving about 60% of second-quarter profit growth.
"The earnings trend is strong enough to exceed analysts' already-high expectations," Ben Snider, strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a June 29 report.
AI infrastructure stocks — led by Nvidia and Micron Technology — will contribute roughly 60% of Q2 EPS growth, with the two chipmakers alone accounting for more than 40% of that total, Snider wrote. The S&P 500's forward four-quarter EPS estimate has risen to $353.22, according to data compiled by Trinity Asset Management, with Q1 2026 EPS growth coming in at 29.4% and Q2 expected to start at 24%.
The second-quarter earnings season will be a critical test for U.S. stocks after corporate profit growth drove essentially all of the S&P 500's gains over the past year, the Goldman team noted. A strong reporting period could reinforce the AI narrative that has powered the broader market rally, while any disappointment risks amplifying recent rotation out of mega-cap technology names.
The S&P 500 fell 2% last week while the Nasdaq 100 declined 4.2%, as end-of-half rebalancing drove a rotation out of rallied technology stocks into cyclicals and defensive sectors. Mega-cap tech faced additional pressure from AI-related concerns, including reports that OpenAI is weighing a delay of its initial public offering to 2027 — a potential setback for strategic investors including Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon.
The Goldman Sachs outlook suggests the upcoming earnings reports could reverse that weakness. Snider cited a "robust macro background" and sustained AI investment as the primary drivers behind the expected outperformance.
The guidance signals that Goldman expects AI-related capital expenditure to continue accelerating, providing a floor under semiconductor and infrastructure stocks. Investors will watch Nvidia's and Micron's Q2 reports for confirmation of the trend, with both companies' results likely to set the tone for the broader earnings season.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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