Gold slips to $4,107 as recovery stalls below $4,230 resistance

Gold's attempt to confirm a corrective low faces a test at $4,230 resistance after sliding 5.2% in the past week.

COMEX gold fell 0.6% to $4,107.34 an ounce on July 7, extending a two-week decline as a recovery attempt stalled below key resistance.

"Gold traded as high as $4,215.50 today, taking out that stop loss two days earlier," CPM Group said in its July 6 trade note, referring to its prior sell recommendation's stop at $4,125. The research firm issued a new sell recommendation targeting $3,975 over the next two weeks, with a stop loss at $4,225.

The August 2026 Comex contract settled at $4,147.90 on July 6 before sliding further. Gold has lost 5.2% over the past week and 8.8% over two weeks, according to market data. The 30-day decline stands at 4.8%. Central banks added a net 41 tonnes to reserves in May, the second-highest monthly total this year, the World Gold Council reported. The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 54 in June, signaling a still-expanding but slowing services sector.

A decisive break above $4,230 could open a path toward $4,300, CPM said, while failure to clear those levels may trigger renewed short selling. The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, due July 8, are the next catalyst for direction.

Resistance Levels Define the Near-Term Path

Technical resistance clusters around $4,230 and $4,300, levels that have capped rallies since late June. CPM's previous sell recommendation on June 24, when gold traded at $4,017.70, targeted a downside as low as $3,800 before the stop loss at $4,125 was triggered. Should gold fail to breach current resistance, CPM expects prices to trade sideways to lower, with an initial target of $3,975. The metal is 8% below its recent peak and 23% higher than a year ago, trading near the lower end of its 30-day range.

Fundamentals present a mixed outlook. Economic output remains relatively healthy, though signs of weakening have emerged in employment and non-AI investment, CPM noted. Inflation pressures stay elevated even as petroleum prices have retreated to February levels, before the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. JPMorgan sees gold reaching $4,500 in the fourth quarter but flagged downside risks from weaker demand in key sectors. At current levels, gold is trading 127% above its price five years ago, reflecting a sustained rally through a period of elevated inflation and geopolitical turmoil.

Geopolitical risks provide a floor under prices. Ukraine's military advantage is growing, Russian domestic conditions are deteriorating, and the Middle East ceasefire extension is less than half complete, CPM said. President Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin on July 5 about Russia's positions, while the U.S. warned Iran of possible Israeli assassination plans against its negotiators. Russia has closed its western borders and is moving toward another large mobilization of civilians, according to CPM.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.