Key Takeaways:
Spot gold fell through its $4,300 an ounce support level on Wednesday, extending a pullback that has erased most of last week's post-Fed rebound, even as TD Securities said the decline is unlikely to run far and forecast a renewed advance above $5,000.
The metal traded near $4,334/oz in late Asian hours, down about 0.6% on the session, according to Kitco data. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for a fourth consecutive session, making bullion more expensive for buyers outside the US.
TD Securities said the macro backdrop remains supportive of a resumption of the bull market, with downside limited and the next leg carrying gold above $5,000/oz. The call puts the bank well above Goldman Sachs, which cut its year-end target to $4,650 while saying stronger-than-expected central bank purchases continue to offset part of the drag from higher rates.
The $4,300 line is now the whole trade
The first support sits at $4,300/oz. A daily close below it exposes roughly $4,230/oz, followed by $4,160/oz. Gold briefly tested $4,240/oz earlier this week — within $1 of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-to-August swing at $4,241/oz — before buyers stepped in.
To the upside, bullion must reclaim $4,380/oz before confronting the $4,400-$4,405/oz zone, where recent highs and the 38.2% retracement converge. A sustained break above that area would bring $4,500/oz back into view, with the 200-day moving average at about $4,541/oz the sterner test beyond it.
Gold has held above its 100-day exponential moving average near $4,367/oz on some sessions and slipped below it on others, leaving the daily RSI near 49 — neither side in control. MACD remains below zero.
China's 1,000 tonnes is the floor under the tape
The counterweight to the Fed is coming from Asia. China imported more than 1,000 tonnes of gold through August, already exceeding its total purchases for all of 2025, according to customs and trade data. Chinese gold ETFs added roughly 44 tonnes over the same period, while the People's Bank of China bought 20.2 tonnes in August — its largest monthly addition since October 2023 — extending official purchases to 22 consecutive months.
Globally, gold-backed ETFs drew $18 billion in August, lifting total holdings to a record 4,189 tonnes, the World Gold Council reported. That is the longest run of inflows since October 2025.
The Fed remains the immediate obstacle. Boston Fed President Susan Collins backed last week's quarter-point increase to a 3.75%-4% policy range and warned the risk of inflation staying materially above 2% has grown. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said recent inflation shocks could prove persistent. The 10-year Treasury yield has eased toward 4.97% after briefly breaking above 5%, and Brent crude has fallen more than 10% from last Tuesday's close as US-Iran diplomacy progresses — both of which reduce the odds of another energy-driven tightening scare.
For scale, gold at $4,334/oz sits roughly 7.8% below the near-$4,700/oz peak reached in August and about 13% above the $3,885/oz level that technical analysts have flagged as the next major downside objective if $4,300/oz fails decisively. Silver and platinum have tracked the same range-bound pattern, indicating the move is dollar- and rates-driven rather than metal-specific.
The next signal comes from US Flash PMIs and the Trump-Xi meeting, with positioning stretched enough that a modest downside data surprise could cut rate-hike expectations and hand gold the squeeze it needs to retake $4,400/oz.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
