Gold drops to $3,941 as target zone points to July bottom

Gold has reached its correction target zone and is expected to form a cycle bottom within the first two weeks of July, according to technical analysis.

Gold slipped to $3,941 per ounce overnight, pushing the metal deeper into its target zone as the first half of 2026 closed.

"The Gold Cycle Indicator finished the week at 23, our most oversold reading since late 2022," AG Thorson, a registered CMT and technical analyst at GoldPredict, said. "I continue to expect a bottom to form within the next week or so, with prices ideally holding above the $3,900 level."

Gold traded at $4,008 per troy ounce in June, down from its all-time high of $5,589 set on Jan. 28, according to market data. The correction represents a decline of roughly 28 percent from the peak. The $3,900 level serves as the critical support floor — a sustained breakdown below that threshold would open the door to a deeper slide toward $3,500, Thorson said.

The next data point arrives with Thursday's US payroll report, which could provide the trigger for a bottoming process. If gold holds above $3,900, the current correction — which began in January — would be approximately 95 percent complete, with the next low expected to hold for the remainder of the bull market, according to Thorson.

Mining Stocks Track Toward a Bottom

Gold mining stocks are trading near the middle of their target box and could form a meaningful bottom during the opening days of July, Thorson said. Junior miners may slip slightly further before reaching a final low, while silver juniors have held up relatively well compared to their gold counterparts.

Longer-term forecasts remain bullish. JP Morgan and Morningstar project continued strength in gold prices through 2026, with some analysts expecting the metal to establish a new baseline above $5,000 per ounce by 2030, according to a market survey. Thorson's outlook is more aggressive, calling for gold above $10,000 into 2030.

Silver did not make a lower low alongside gold, though one final dip into early July remains possible. Platinum has closed below its target box and appears likely to test support around $1,500, plus or minus $25.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.