Gold climbs above $4,089 as Fed minutes loom as next catalyst

COMEX gold rose 2.1% to $4,089.49 an ounce on Wednesday, bouncing from its lowest level since November, after softer-than-expected jobs data and dovish Fed commentary.

"Gold is seeing a nice bounce this morning; a lower-than-expected ADP print helped set the stage and Fed chair Warsh's comments on inflation coming down has pushed yields lower," Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said. "Gold may have carved out at least a short-term base unless we get a blowout payrolls report tomorrow."

The ADP national employment report showed private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, missing the 118,000 consensus estimate, according to data released Wednesday. The prior month's reading was unrevised at 122,000. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations have moderated in recent weeks, even as he reiterated the central bank's commitment to its 2% target. Traders now price a 67% chance of a rate hike in September, per the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold's 52-week moving average sits as the next technical hurdle. A confirmed break above that level would signal a reversal bottom and could extend the rally, with the Fed minutes release on July 8 serving as the immediate catalyst. The metal remains 27% below its January all-time high of $5,597.23, set on Jan. 29.

Silver, platinum rally alongside gold

Spot silver added 2.8% to $60.24 an ounce, while platinum rose 3.1% to $1,599.36, recovering from its lowest point since November earlier in the session. Palladium firmed 1.6% to $1,223.68. The broad precious metals rally reflected a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields after Warsh's comments.

Gold had been set for its worst quarterly loss in 13 years before this week's rebound, as persistent inflation and hawkish Fed expectations weighed on the non-yielding metal. UBS sees gold surging 30% over the next year, while JP Morgan's research forecasts the metal climbing toward $4,000 by mid-2026 — a level it has already surpassed.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran held technical talks in Doha on Wednesday to negotiate shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz and secure a lasting ceasefire, an Iranian official said. Any disruption to Gulf shipping could add a risk premium to gold as a safe-haven asset.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.