Citi raised its Micron price target to $1,300 from $1,150 with a Buy rating, lifting August and November quarter estimates on stronger DRAM pricing and undersupply. The new target implies about 19% upside from Tuesday's $1,096.16 close, but still sits below the Wall Street consensus. Wells Fargo cut its target to $1,400 from $1,525 the same day, and Michael Burry added to his Micron shorts.
Citi raised its Micron Technology price target to $1,300 from $1,150 and kept a Buy rating, after lifting its August and November quarter estimates on stronger-than-expected DRAM pricing and continued undersupply across DRAM and NAND.
"Stronger-than-expected DRAM pricing and continued undersupply across both DRAM and NAND markets" drove the estimate increases, Citi analyst Atif Malik said in the note. The bank now models blended DRAM average selling prices rising 20% quarter over quarter in the current period and another 13% in the following quarter, with NAND pricing up 34% and then 15%.
The revised target implies roughly 19% upside from Tuesday's close of $1,096.16. Micron shares traded near $1,093 on Wednesday, down about 0.3%, after a four-session rally that included a 5% gain on Tuesday and pushed the company's market value above $1.2 trillion. The stock touched a 52-week high of $1,255.
Citi's estimate changes put fiscal fourth-quarter revenue at about $51 billion and earnings at $31.45 per share, both above current consensus. Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30, roughly two weeks before SEMICON West, which runs October 13 to 15 in San Francisco. Citi expects equipment suppliers there to discuss shortages in DRAM, multilayer ceramic capacitors, printed circuit boards and optical components — constraints that would limit how quickly memory makers add capacity. The bank estimates DRAM and NAND supply growth stays in the low-20% range and expects prices to peak around the second quarter of 2027.
Wells Fargo moved the other way on the same day, cutting its Micron target to $1,400 from $1,525 while keeping an Overweight rating. Analyst Aaron Rakers said the next phase of the stock's performance depends on investors gaining confidence in the duration of the memory shortage, on expanding Strategic Customer Agreement engagements, and on Micron's execution. Wells Fargo's target remains the higher of the two.
The split leaves Citi's new number below the collective Wall Street expectation, which caps the implied upside it signals. Michael Burry added to his Micron shorts "in some size" on Tuesday, pointing to Acer CEO Jason Chen's commentary that Chinese memory production could eventually ease supply constraints and pressure prices. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits moved to bullish from neutral over the past day.
For holders, the call is a bet that contract pricing, not unit volumes, carries Micron's earnings through the fiscal year — Citi's DRAM ASP assumptions are the number to track. The September 30 report is the first test of whether realized pricing matches the estimate hikes, and SEMICON West commentary on capacity constraints follows two weeks later.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
