China's 2026 618 festival posts weakest growth in 16 years

China's 2026 618 shopping festival generated just 3.2% online GMV growth, the weakest performance in 16 years, as cautious consumers and scaled-back subsidies muted the campaign.

"The 2026 618 festival is likely to be the most low-profile and subdued in the past 16 years, against a weak macro backdrop and cautious consumer spending," Citi said in a report.

Fudan University's Big Data Laboratory estimated total online GMV across all platforms rose 3.2% year over year. Taobao and Tmall Group accounted for 34% of GMV, JD.com 25%, Douyin 20% and PDD Holdings 7%. Major platforms did not disclose actual GMV or growth data for the period.

The muted performance signals that Chinese e-commerce platforms are prioritizing profitability over market share growth. Alibaba significantly scaled back investment in Quick Commerce this year, shifting toward brand advertising and endorsement strategies, while JD.com achieved a record high in transacting users, bolstered by growth in its services business.

The 3.2% growth rate marks a sharp deceleration from prior years, when double-digit expansion was common during the mid-year shopping festival. Citi noted the entire industry lacked aggressive subsidy competition after Alibaba's pullback, further dampening the campaign's momentum.

For global investors, the weak 618 data reinforces concerns about Chinese consumer demand heading into the second half of 2026. The festival's performance is often viewed as a bellwether for consumption trends, and the muted result could weigh on revenue forecasts for Alibaba, JD.com and PDD in upcoming earnings reports. The shift away from subsidy-driven growth may protect margins but is unlikely to reignite the top-line expansion investors have been seeking.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.