Key Takeaways
Bitcoin (BTC) was sharply rejected from the $80,000 resistance area as on-chain data shows heavy profit-taking from short-term holders, confirming a key level of overhead supply that could limit further gains.
"This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum," on-chain analytics firm Glassnode wrote in a recent report.
The rejection came as Bitcoin’s price neared the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which sits between $80,000 and $81,800, according to data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode. Data shows the 24-hour simple moving average of STH Realized Profit surged to $4 million per hour as the price approached this level, signaling heavy distribution. The derivatives market reflects this bearish turn, with over $500 million in leveraged long positions liquidated and funding rates turning negative to around -2 percent annualized, indicating traders are paying to short the market.
The move reinforces a tight trading range between $75,000 support and $80,000 resistance that has anchored the price since April 19. Analysts are now pointing to seasonal headwinds and historical patterns as cause for deeper concern. Analyst Merlijn The Trader noted a recurring four-year mid-term election pattern of May peaks in 2014, 2018, and 2022 that preceded drops of 61 percent, 65 percent, and 66 percent. A similar reversal, he argued, could push BTC toward $30,000.
Beyond the STH cost basis, other on-chain metrics suggest a lack of conviction for a new bull cycle. Crypto analyst Crypto Dan argued that BTC remains in a “typical bear cycle,” pointing to the negative funding rates as confirmation of weak sentiment.
The price was also rejected at the True Market Mean, according to Glassnode, reinforcing the downside bias. This is supported by derivatives data from Amberdata, which showed large block flows for a Bitcoin put spread targeting a drop to $65,000 or lower. While the price has managed to hold above the adjusted realized price of $72,300—a metric that excludes coins held for more than seven years—the immediate pressure remains to the downside.
Despite the bearish setup, not all signals are negative. The weighted average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs sits near $76,700, creating a zone of institutional support. Furthermore, the heavy short positioning leaves room for a potential squeeze if demand returns. Data from CoinGlass shows a large pool of short liquidations, totaling about $4.48 billion, sitting just above the $80,000 level.
Still, some analysts see more pain ahead before a recovery. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, has suggested that Bitcoin’s base-case bear-market bottom is not until October 2026. While he noted a capitulation event could create a bottom sooner, the prevailing data points to a market facing significant headwinds.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
