Barclays sees gold at $4,791 in 2026 as structural drivers reemerge

Gold's 26% correction during the Iran conflict was a positioning reset, not a structural break, Barclays said.

Barclays reaffirmed its gold price forecast at $4,791 per ounce for 2026 and $4,900 for 2027, saying the metal's 26% decline during the Iran conflict was driven by temporary factors.

"Recent price gyrations notwithstanding, if there is a period when gold ought to be trading at a premium, it is now," Lefteris Farmakis and Themistoklis Fiotakis, cross-asset research analysts at Barclays, said in a research note published Monday.

The bank attributed the selloff to three proximate causes: a stronger US dollar, equity markets absorbing risk capital, and the unwinding of leveraged gold positions. Barclays calculated that the dollar index jump and the S&P 500's 10% rally implied roughly a 10% decline in gold prices, with the remainder coming from position liquidation. Russian and Turkish central bank gold sales, undertaken to defend the ruble and lira respectively, added further pressure, the analysts said.

Gold traded near $4,390 per ounce Monday, close to Barclays' fair-value estimate of $4,150, which the bank said improves the risk-reward for re-entry. The analysts expect a reassertion of dollar weakness, a return to consistent central bank buying, and sustained upward pressure on inflation from higher energy prices to drive the rebound.

Inflation Support Remains Intact

Barclays calculated that each percentage-point increase in inflation delivers roughly a 5% uplift to gold prices, suggesting the inflationary legacy of the energy shock will ultimately be supportive. The latest CPI data showed prices rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% from a year earlier, with energy prices jumping 3.9% for the month and 23.5% over 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Mining Stocks as a Proxy

The bank recommended exposure to gold mining stocks as a way to play the rebound, naming Endeavour Mining, Hochschild Mining, Fresnillo, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. Newmont shares have gained 2.6% over six months and 0.8% year-to-date, while Agnico Eagle shares are down 2.9% over six months and 3.7% year-to-date, making them relative laggards in a sector that could benefit from rising bullion prices.

Barclays' $4,791 forecast sits below Goldman Sachs' end-2026 target of $5,400 per ounce and Wells Fargo Investment Institute's year-end range of $6,100 to $6,300, but above Citi's near-term target of $4,000. The bank acknowledged some near-term mark-to-market downside to its calls.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.