Arabica coffee jumps 13% in 5 days as Brazil rains disrupt harvest

Arabica coffee futures climbed above $2.70 a pound, gaining 13% in five trading sessions, after heavy rain disrupted Brazil's harvest.

"The weather scare comes at a critical time for Brazil's harvest, and even a temporary delay could tighten available supply," Andrew Addison, a technical analyst at the Institutional View, said.

Prices had fallen to a 19-month low just a week earlier. Arabica closed at $6,110 per ton on the ICE on June 16, down 16% from $7,300 on Jan. 16, according to exchange data. Robusta fell 9.7% over the same period to $3,545 per ton on the London market.

The rally comes as the USDA projects Brazil's 2026/27 harvest at 71.9 million bags, up 14% year-over-year, which could rebalance a market that has faced weather-related disruptions since 2024. The next catalyst is whether rains persist into July, when Brazil's harvest peaks.

Brazil's Weather Disruption

Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, typically harvests during its drier winter season. Above-average rainfall has slowed field work, caused berries to drop prematurely and increased disease risk, traders said. The disruption follows several turbulent years when drought and extreme weather hit major growing regions, pushing Arabica to a record $4.20 per pound in February 2025.

A Rally or a Trap?

The speed of the rebound has divided market watchers. Addison said coffee's long-term uptrend remains intact after prices broke above resistance at $3.35 to $3.40 per pound in late 2024, and a move above $4.50 would confirm a major bull market. SentimenTrader, a market-research firm, warned that similar sharp rebounds after major lows have historically produced poor returns over the following two to six months, calling the move a potential "bull trap."

For investors, the answer depends on the time frame. Coffee may retain a compelling long-term story if weather continues to threaten supply. But the speed of the recent rebound means late buyers risk getting caught in the next pullback.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.