10 Japan-linked tankers exit Hormuz as Iran shipping talks advance

Iran's partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz allowed 10 Japan-linked vessels carrying 12 million barrels of crude to exit Monday, while Tehran and Oman negotiate a payment system that could reshape the economics of the world's most important energy chokepoint.

"The reopening is real, but partial, and consistent with ongoing mine-clearing operations and intermittent security incidents in the strait," said Clair Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at British consulting firm Vortexa.

The fleet includes six very large crude carriers loaded with Saudi, UAE and Qatari crude from late February to early March, two chemical tankers, a vehicle carrier and a container ship, LSEG shipping data showed. Most are managed by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. Separately, the VLCC Long Wind carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude for South Korean refiner S-Oil exited Saturday and is expected to arrive at Onsan on July 26. Two additional Japanese-owned supertankers were heading toward the strait Tuesday, Kpler data showed.

The movement comes as Iran and Oman hold talks on a future administration model for the strait, with Tehran demanding fees for passage — a proposal the White House opposes. Iran collected as much as $2 million per vessel during the war, according to an Iranian lawmaker, and now seeks a permanent system that could add billions of dollars in costs to global crude shipments.

Transit volumes have recovered to nearly half their pre-war levels since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that guaranteed free passage for 60 days, according to Vortexa. But the recovery remains fragile. Western navies say the threat risk is "substantial" and the center of the strait has been mined. Over the weekend, at least eight vessels performed unexplained U-turns along the Omani route, with four subsequently exiting via the Iranian-designated corridor, Bloomberg reported.

Iran's Leverage Over the Strait

Iranian officials have made clear they do not intend to return to the pre-war status quo. The fifth point of the June 17 MoU limits free passage to 60 days, after which Tehran says its port and military authorities will manage maritime traffic. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on X that "Hormuz is defined under Iran's command," rejecting U.S. military involvement in the waterway's security.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea prohibits tolls on merchant ships transiting natural straits, but Iran has not signed the treaty. Oman, which has signed, opposes "transit fees" but has not ruled out charging for maritime services such as security and pollution control — a model similar to the Malacca and Singapore Straits, where a Japanese foundation collects voluntary contributions. Turkey collects approximately $229 million annually from fees in the Bosporus and Dardanelles.

What a Fee Would Mean for Oil Markets

A transit fee through the Strait of Hormuz would act as a new tax on one of the world's most critical energy corridors, raising costs for crude oil, LNG and refined products while adding uncertainty to freight rates, Jungman said. Even if Gulf exporting countries initially absorb the cost, it would ultimately fall on importers in Asia and Europe, where the bulk of the region's shipments end up.

The precedent may matter more than the price. "What happens in Hormuz will not stay in Hormuz: Malacca, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait — any of the many potential strategic points at sea could become the subject of geopolitical negotiations," Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, said. "Global free trade is at stake," given that more than 80 percent of goods are transported by sea.

U.S. negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff raised the issue in Qatar last week, urging Iran to drop its fee demands in exchange for sanctions relief on Iranian oil — revenue that one U.S. source said "would be 100 times greater" than what Tehran could collect through tolls.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.